The Associated Press estimates today that President-elect Joe Biden had defeated incumbent Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential campaign, the 174-year-old organization, reports elections since 1848 – He then published his estimate of the Ethereum and EOS blockchains, which triggered at least one prediction market.
However, some have expressed skepticism about the validity of using such an estimate as an oracle raises broader questions about security and determinism in contract-based smart forecasting markets.
On October 15, 2020, Everipedia – the for-profit blockchain and encyclopedia company – announced this would provide data signed with cryptographic evidence that the data came from AP to EOS and Ethereum with the use of the infrastructure provided by the Chainlink Oracle network.
“We will make history as the first to directly sign the campaign estimates made by AP and publish them for blockchain use,” said David Liebowitz, Vice President of Business Development at Everipedia, in a press release.
Following the announcement by YieldWars The Gamified Yield Farming and Competitive Prediction Market platform launched a Trump / Biden prediction market with AP data as an oracle. The market attracted more than $ 250,000 in bets in just two days.
In an interview with Cointelegraph, so said one of the anonymous co-founders of YieldWars, Owl Everipedia’s collaboration with AP was a natural choicel:
“By further exploring the option (s) it became clear that this was our best option. AP is without a doubt the most trusted medium of communication in the world. Since this is an anonymous project, we knew we needed one to help people can trust us final source “.
But still, The reviews – Many of them appear to be supporters of Donald Trump’s claims that the election was not final – have argued that AP is insufficient as an oracle.
ONE Users from twitter said:
“Maintain this path and put falsehoods on the blockchain as facts are a dangerous path. He may win, but the censuses and legal proceedings are ongoing. So how do you put them on the blockchain as facts?”
Another user with the nickname “cryptoilet”, I ask: “So can I write on the blockchain that I am now the president?”
Owl thinks so, however Forecasting and future election markets markets may offer a more robust collection of oraclesto ideally override these complaints:
“I expect there will be several oracles like the AP in the future, and I expect we will see this in the next election. A number of trusted oracles that solve the markets should resolve virtually all disputes. “
Don’t stop reading: