This was found in the latest investigation by the derivatives exchange ZUBR, which was published on June 29 Private investor engagement is increasing, although it has long been reported that an institutional takeover would be needed to bring cryptocurrency prices to a higher level.
The recent halving is only a distant memory; The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is still in the range of $ 9,100 Current price developments are far from the increase expected by many private and institutional investors after the halving.
Despite weak price movements, a variety of bullish factors They show remarkable growth in investor participation compared to the highest valued digital asset. These factors include record growth in the number of Bitcoin whales, a new record in the number of wallet addresses with less than 1 BTC, record outflow from BTC exchanges, and the fact that Bitcoin has recently achieved its third-best performance in the second quarter of its history.
In addition, the growing demand from Grayscale Investments, Square and other companies for Bitcoin suggests this The demand comes from both institutional and private investors.
The total number of BTC addresses (1-10 BTC). Source: chain analysis
In the meantime, ZUBR found from chain analysis data that By April 2020, wallet addresses with 1 to 10 Bitcoin had increased by more than 500,000and that “these directions have grown every month since the start of the bear market in 2018 after the price of Bitcoin peaked.”
According to ZUBR:
“By the next cut in half in 2024, retailers could account for more than 50% of the physical supply.”
In 2020 there was a lot of discussion about the perceived correlation between stock markets and Bitcoin. When the markets fell in March 2020, risky assets like Bitcoin quickly followed.
Typically, a sharp drop in value, like the 50% drop in Bitcoin price on March 13, would dampen demand along with the decline in stock markets. However, the ZUBR data show something different.
Even when the price of Bitcoin fell more than 50% on Black Thursday, retail investor demand remained strong and there was no noticeable decrease in the amount of bitcoin stored in retail wallet addresses.
The increase / decrease in BTC addresses occurs from month to month (1-10). Source: chain analysis
900 bitcoins are currently mined daily, and this number is expected to decrease to 450 for the next halving in 2024. ZUBR predicts this This year, retail demand could exceed an average of 250 BTC a day or half of the new daily supply.
Bitcoin retail demand versus supply estimates. Source: Chain analysis, ZUBR
It is more, This retail demand could exceed ZUBR’s estimateBecause their data focused only on integer wallet addresses, rather than including accounts with broken BTC holdings.
Although it is difficult to predict the future development of Bitcoin prices, it is clear that private investors are not leaving the sector due to the influx of institutional funds.
If the forecasts of ZUBR and Chainalysis are met, retail investors will play a greater role in the Bitcoin network and in value dynamics in 2024.