An analysis of the price behavior of Bitcoin is not always easy. In fact, it’s not always easy to talk about Bitcoin in general. The narrative seems to go one way and reality seems to go the other. There is a lot of ideology and fanaticism. So with so much politics, reality takes a back seat. If we were to be guided by what the most passionate say, we wouldn’t be surprised. Apparently, Bitcoin is a foolproof lifeline. That said, Bitcoin is invulnerable to the global crisis. And it is a â ???? safe havenâ ???? in the face of inflation, deflation and all the evils of the world. Is Bitcoin that “supernatural” object that some advertise so much?
Everything indicates that Satoshi Nakamoto was a person of flesh and blood. While it’s true that he was an extremely brilliant cryptographer, we cannot assume that he was a cheap messiah. We start from the principle that Bitcoin was developed by fallible beings, is used by fallible beings and is supported by fallible beings. I mean nothing is sacred here. It is a technology like the bicycle, the book or the internet. What we do know is that Bitcoin was an initiative inspired by libertarian ideas. In particular, there is talk of a citizen currency with little supply that operates decentrally via the Internet. Bitcoin is code that has been adopted by a global community to transact, speculate, and invest.
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The Bitcoin market is relatively small, new and very volatile. There are still many uncertainties and ambiguities in regulatory matters. It’s a market that promises big profits. But its instability increases its risk. The most ambitious young people seek extreme profits in this spirited and innovative world. In any case, Bitcoin is not an asset for the most conservative. Obviously it is not suitable for the heart. Because this market is pure adrenaline.
However, we are in the time after the truth. Each postmodern tribe defines its truth according to its beliefs. Reality only exists to validate beliefs. Fanaticism is the disease of this century. It is no secret to anyone that resentment and cynicism in this area are our daily bread. Bitcoin presents itself as a savior from a corrupt and oppressive system. What does it imply that Bitcoin is the only “safe haven”? before a system is on the verge of collapse. The dollar, banks and governments will fall under their own weight. Bitcoin is a real revolution because it is the right way to do things. In other words, Bitcoin is not just a speculative asset. Bitcoin is also a reform movement. Bitcoin is the resistance. Bella ciao!
The Bitconer â ???? Revolutionaries? ???? they see the revolution everywhere. If a bank loses any quarter of the year, it’s an unquestionable sign that the banking system is on the verge of collapse. When the price of Bitcoin goes up and the dollar goes down, it is an undeniable sign that the world is waking up in support of the libertarian revolution. The goal here, of course, is not money or profit. The goal is the libertarian values of the revolution. In his wisdom, Satoshi understood the world economic system deeply and gave the world the solution: Bitcoin.
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That all sounds very nice now. But what do the facts say? It is evident that militant bitcoiners inherited their narrative from the stalks of gold, which in turn take an ultra-conservative stance on money and the economy. Gold has traditionally been an asset of fear. And historically, it maintains a negative correlation with the stock markets. That has changed a lot in recent years as the central banks have other instruments to stabilize their currencies. However, we could say that gold is the preferred asset of the pessimists. Well, it’s rather strange logic because the crypto-libertarians did a copy and paste in the case of “digital gold”.
What does it mean to use the old gold narrative to talk about an asset as new as Bitcoin? Well, it means that Bitcoin is magically becoming a “safe haven”. It’s a hedge against inflation. And that supposedly people buy Bitcoin in times of uncertainty. This means that at the time of a complete breakdown, Bitcoin will benefit from it. After all, we are talking about hard currencies in a world full of mishandled and doomed currencies.
Here is the problem with copy and paste. The dogmatic method neglects something extremely important: observe reality and study the evidence. How does Bitcoin actually behave? How does Bitcoin behave in the face of price losses on the stock markets? Reality shows that Bitcoin is a very volatile speculative asset. In other words, it is a high risk investment that is bought by the most aggressive investors during optimistic times. Bitcoin benefits from the dollar’s liquidity as a growing asset. In that sense, it is more like Tesla than gold. Bitcoin falls in times of uncertainty and rises in times of optimism. When there is a lot of cheap money in circulation, investors develop a high tolerance for risk. Innovation benefits from this. And that’s good for bitcoin. In times of crisis, investors become talkative. Which is lousy for Bitcoin.
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I am referring to the facts. What I have said here is not my theory. Any thinking being can review the evidence. Have you seen the SP 500 chart compared to the Bitcoin chart? Have you studied recent Wall Street crashes? How did Bitcoin behave in these cases? If you have not yet reviewed the evidence, please do so. The libertarian narrative of Bitcoin as a conservative asset (“digital gold”) is losing significantly to Bitcoin as a speculative fintech phenomenon. The evidence that Bitcoin is an asset that benefits from the prosperity (liquidity) of the system is overwhelming. Obviously, Bitcoin is no win for the fearful and pessimists. Bitcoin is an asset for optimists, the adventurous and the brave. Bitcoin does not benefit from the boat crash. It benefits from the ship’s wealth.
What is bitcoin A code. A code that represents a rate of change. Bitcoin is a pair (Bitcoin / Dollar, Bitcoin / Euro). It is not a productive good. A farm is a productive asset. The owner of a self-sufficient farm can afford to say that crises do not hit him as badly. But Bitcoin doesn’t create wealth. Bitcoin is money transfer. Bitcoin’s price depends on available capital and investor optimism. They do not believe me? Analyze the evidence. Ignore the dogma.