We are all speculators and that’s fine. There is nothing wrong with wanting stock growth. However, the term “speculation” is used in most cases in its pejorative sense. After this unfortunate connotation, a speculator is an irresponsible optimist. On the one hand he is an agent of chaos and on the other hand he is a greedy, senseless person. That is, a fool who lives life as if it were a casino. They want to give little and get a lot. Not every speculator is an investor, but the main task of an investor is to speculate. Two key questions. How much is it worth today? And how much will it be worth in the future?
The present is perception; and the future, expectation. In other words, the reality is essentially subjective. It is not what it really is, but what it appears to be. This does not mean that reality does not exist. Only we see it through a lens. Bitcoin needs to be examined in two ways. The sky and the earth. The price and its development. The technical and the basic. His reality and his illusion.
The reality of Bitcoin and the idea of Bitcoin are married. Sometimes they separate a lot for a while, but sooner or later they come back together. This means that Bitcoin is often undervalued and sometimes overvalued. And this happens when the market is wrong in its assessments due to irrational factors. Which happens very often. This is not just because of the irrationality of the masses. This also happens due to missing information. We don’t have all the information at hand. So our diagnoses are always accepted.
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Now the big question. How much is Bitcoin worth? How do we appreciate it? If we don’t know the true value of Bitcoin, we don’t know when the market is undervaluing or overvaluing it. We also won’t know what makes it grow or what doesn’t. To invest in Bitcoin, it is important to be a Bitcoin appraiser. In other words, an expert who can make your assessment.
The first thing to keep in mind is that Bitcoin is a purely speculative asset. What does that mean? Well, the first thing is that it’s not a commodity. This means that it is not a use value entry. In other words, it doesn’t solve a specific need like oil, grain, a property, or orange juice. On the other hand, it’s not a productive asset like a stock, company, or machine. In other words, it is not a production apparatus like a factory, a farm, or a restaurant. Bitcoin is like Don Quixote de la Mancha, Hamlet or Mickey Mouse. Or like language, math, law, contracts or music. A code. An abstraction whose value depends solely on supply and demand. From your buyers and sellers. It’s like the pledged word. Intangible, but possibly very valuable for its reliability and conviviality.
Like language, money belongs to people. They are symbols. Symbolic systems. What value do they have? What are the benefits? Unite us. They are social pacts. Now a symbol consists of two parts. The sign and its meaning. The sign can be anything, but the meaning is an agreement between the participants in the system. The word “house” means house because Spanish-speaking people have agreed that “house” is a house. The English, for example, have no such agreement, neither the Chinese nor the Germans. That’s how money works. So Bitcoin is the Bitcoin code and the Bitcoin community. Soul and body
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The Tinkerbell effect describes the phenomenon that there are things that only exist because people believe that they exist. Tinker Bell, the character in Peter Pan’s play, was able to revive due to the belief of the audience. However, this is only a poetic way of saying that codes only work if they are accepted by a group. So, Bitcoin is valuable for its demand.
Bitcoin’s valuation depends heavily on the investigation of its employees. Community. Bitcoiner. Who are you? Why do they use Bitcoin? The first challenge in estimating is that we don’t have an adequate metric. For example, the Bitcoin Foundation should be on it. But unfortunately it is not. There are no reliable indicators. We need accurate data and we don’t have it. How much are we? Where we are? At what speed are we growing?
How much are we? We don’t know exactly. There are said to be around 36 million portfolios. So we can assume that we are less than 36 million people. Hundreds? Thousands? Millions? We should have this number. However, there is still no reputable and generally recognized institution that regularly publishes an official number. But I would say we are what we are, but we are few. That means we can grow a lot more in the future.
On the other hand, it is a very young community. Millennials. We have more information here and we know that millennials are the largest generation in history. You are many. And they are entering their investment era and the impact will be huge. Two key indicators. Money available for investment. Percentage of this investment for Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin community is strong in the U.S. and Asia. That means we are very well located because we are where the money is. But the Bitcoin community isn’t particularly rich. The market is dominated by retailers. While it is true that we have some venture capitalists and some family offices, there is still a long way to go to win large funds and institutions. This configuration is important. Regulation, infrastructure and market maturity are essential to attract the giants of the financial world. The big obstacle here is the radicalism of anarchists and libertarians within the community who want Bitcoin to stay in the wild west. But I think the moderates are more. And the market will gradually mature.
That brings us to another important element. Bitcoin as a brand means rebellion. In other words, Bitcoin is a declaration of independence. This is important because rebellion never goes out of style. In other words, many choose Bitcoin for political, ideological, ethical, and / or aesthetic reasons. First, there is government and bank rejection. Bitcoin is a civil currency. And this element attracts a lot of people. The other thing is that Bitcoin technology has a cool touch that gives it its brand value. In addition, crypto and digital create a lot of trust. Technology and autonomy. Growing trends. We are doing well there.
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Another aspect that we cannot forget is Bitcoin as a very portable and elusive tool. Very practical in some niches. It has earned a place in certain rooms. You could say there are three big ones. The informal, the gray and the black. I will generalize for brevity. But informally, it could include wire transfers and gig economy. In gray you could mention the “legally ambiguous” currency market, gambling, tax evasion, etc. And finally, black numbers, crime, drugs, money laundering, etc. Note that I did not take into account the much-mentioned trade. Do we have a significant presence in retail? I do not know. So far I have not seen any very convincing data in this regard.
In general, the Bitcoin community has this configuration. Those are the sectors we have, and we have a lot of expansion opportunities in each of them because Bitcoin has competitive advantages there. Many speak of conquering the world. All or nothing. Error. The goal is to grow a little bit more every day. One step at a time. Like the turtle in the fable.
What is the most important thing in Bitcoin? Its price or its development? The body or the soul? I would say that they are two intertwined elements. But it is something. A person may have a great personality, but not a good aesthetic. And it can have good aesthetics and a very bad personality. Ultimately, however, the personality manifests itself in aesthetics. We can have one of those disheveled Sundays or we can wear silk. But sooner or later, essence and aesthetics will be synchronized. The price is the dress of the day. But the basics are muscles. Block by block. We will build the future block by block.