Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election could change the world in many ways. On the one hand, it’s a defeat for talkative populism. And on the other hand, it is the case of a “strong man”. Donald Trump pretty much reminds us of the charismatic leader of the third world. A figure who is more personal than institutional, more visceral than rational, and more conflictual than conciliatory. The first change is in the tone of the speech. Joe Biden is a much more traditional politician. That said, his style is less of the Third World.
Is Joe Biden’s victory a fact? What about Donald Trump fraud allegations? Well, I fear that there is still a lot of institutional trust in the United States. Something that generally doesn’t happen in Latin America. In Latin America, when someone denounces fraud in an electoral process, the most certain thing is that the allegation becomes a fact in the opinion of the citizens. Because the personal comes before the institutional. Kind of guilty until proven otherwise.
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In somewhat more advanced democracies, the institution takes precedence over the personal. And complaints are treated as complaints. This means that the complainant must provide evidence. And it is the judge who has the final say. In the meantime, it robs the principle of innocence until proven otherwise.
Donald Trump has yet to provide evidence of the alleged fraud. And their allegations seem unfounded. It is for this reason that the media, the leaders of the United Kingdom, most of Europe, governments in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and America have recognized his victory. In Latin America, two governments, Brazil and Mexico, have yet to recognize Biden’s victory. Interestingly, both populist governments. In addition, the governments of Russia and China decided to wait for an opinion. Both authoritarian governments. Institutionality is the key concept here.
Donald Trump has the right to lodge complaints. If you have evidence of fraud, you must provide it. But he’s not a judge. It’s not the Supreme Court. In other words, a sentence cannot be output. That said, Joe Biden is the winner of the pick (until proven otherwise). For many, especially in Latin America, this is extremely confusing. Because the concept of institutionality is not well established in the minds of many.
The financial markets, for example, took Biden’s victory for granted the day after the afternoon elections. As the outlook began to clear, fears dissipated and optimism entered the markets. On election night, the markets were quite concerned because there was a lot of uncertainty. The fear was too tight. However, the essential has been resolved. Biden won. Of course there was nothing official yet. But that never stopped the markets. The SP 500 rose. Bitcoin rose.
Joe Biden’s victory and the Pfizer vaccine generated a lot of optimism from investors. And optimism means buyer. Buyers mean walks. Is Biden a communist or a left radical? Of course not. We have to remember that Joe Biden is no stranger. Biden has been in politics for many, many years. And their positions are well known. Biden’s track record has shown time and again that he is not a radical. Biden is a moderate center. A centrist. He does not belong to the radical gang of his party. Biden isn’t Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. We are not talking about the New Green Deal here.
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Associating Joe Biden with the radical left during the campaign was a laboratory strategy of Trump’s command. The strategy worked like a charm in Florida with the Cubans and Venezuelans. But Joe Biden is very different from Fidel Castro or Hugo Chavez. The comparison is absurd.
In fact, Biden’s economic plan is not bad at all. Basically, it’s the classic democratic recipe. And we need to remember that democratic governments are better for the economy than republicans. TOThere is no radicalism anywhere here. The richest will certainly pay more taxes. But nothing from the other world. Yes, we will have a generous stimulus package. In this case, unlike the Trump packages, we will put a stronger focus on fiscal rather than monetary incentives. That means that not everything falls into the hands of the financial markets. The real economy will get more help this time through higher public spending. In other words, we will recover more equally. Also more gross domestic product.
The fact of having a Republican Senate is positive because it means there will be no radicalism. And the new president will be forced to make bipartisan decisions. That is healthy for democracy and it is healthy for the economy. The markets are certainly satisfied with this formula. This level of non-partisanship is very relevant in relation to public policies, budgets, laws, positions and regulations.
All of these are positive for Bitcoin. All of this liquidity in the context of a recovering economy will certainly have a positive impact on price. Of course, we need to be very careful about the names chosen for the various federal departments. In the case of Bitcoin, the most important agency is likely the SEC. Jay Clayton goes outside safely. And his place will likely be taken by someone who is less passive. This position is key. We must be very vigilant about this appointment.
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The current optimism is not irrational. While Biden will take office next January and we won’t have any more incentives this year, it’s not stupid to be optimistic. Because today we have fewer uncertainties than in the weeks before the elections. Joe Biden’s victory and the Pfizer vaccine tell us today that 2021 will be the year of recovery. Investors bet on better times.
Joe Biden was Vice President of the Obama Administration. We must remember that Barack Obama won the 2008 election and took power in January of the following year. In the early days of his tenure, he signed the Economic Stimulus Act with the aim of mitigating the economic recession caused by the subprime mortgage crisis by investing in public health, education, urban infrastructure and energy. His financial rescue plan helped her recover. And after that we had a boom that lasted more than a decade. Joe Biden was part of that team. And this Joe Biden (not the so-called communist) is going to be the next President of the United States.