We are in the days after the third bitcoin halving. The most anticipated event of the year is finally here and now we have the same feeling that we experienced after the New Year party. Everything is over, silence comes. And now that? You get thoughtful. And you start asking questions. Who am I? Where am I going? And such things.
We went up and down in constant search. And now? After halving, we must continue swimming in this sea of uncertainty between doubt and optimism.
Now let’s talk about the week’s most read crypto messages.
It has always been very curious to me that when the price of Bitcoin rises sharply, many will announce the fact as something logical and predictable, but if the price drops overnight, the event will come as a big surprise. Bitcoin increases are considered natural, but drops are not. What’s up with Bitcoin? everyone asks with a lost look. One might assume that Bitcoin users are already used to its volatility, but it turns out that this is not the case.
The decline before today’s halving appears to be very large as the price has recovered. And when Bitcoin rises, the past is often forgotten. However, This case existed and can be repeated.
It is clear that the resistance of $ 10,000 per unit is very strong. If it breaks, we can keep it for a few days. And if we can’t break it, the rejection is great. The optimism about the halving was not enough to break this strong resistance.
And of course we have volatility because there is a lot of indecision. Buyers who expect a lot from halving and sellers who are somewhat skeptical about the short-term effects. And of course the whales do mischief in this rough sea.
Every time there is consensus among analysts about the price of Bitcoin, I shiver. Suddenly it’s a superstition of mine, but sometimes I feel like it Bitcoin is happy to challenge the experts. Have you ever found an expert who was right in his predictions? Be careful, I’m not an expert. I am just very careful to think that everything is written and that the future will be exactly as we imagine it to be. The story doesn’t always repeat itself. And we forget that the halving only affects the supply, but the price increases mainly with the demand.
What I believe is that the liquidity released by the central banks due to the corona virus will have the power to inflate all markets. And of course that also includes Bitcoin. Halving thus reduces the flow of new Bitcoin and liquidity on the street stimulates demand and creates the perfect conditions for the increase. In this case, Bitcoin would behave towards a technology company and not like gold. The coronavirus crisis would not benefit Bitcoin as such, but the recovery would. This contradicts what many experts claim in this area, but I think this scenario is likely, although it is very unpopular among Bitcoiners.
This debate was very good. I loved. A lot is said about the behavior of the Bitcoin price after the two previous halving. But we have to be very careful with that. The premise of technical analysis that “history repeats” should not be misinterpreted. We can have blue skies 20 days in a row, but one day we can have rain. Nothing is definitive in markets like Bitcoin. The first two halves occurred in very different contexts than this third halving. Graphics performance is very limited. They are not a scripture.
This halving is obviously different. 2012 and 2016 were years of economic recovery. Bitcoin has never experienced a global economic crisis. The current one would be the first. Despite our assumptions Only time will not reveal his behavior. I am not implying that we would have bad years. In fact, because of the impulses, there will be so much money on the street that it rarely happens that prices do not ultimately rise.
Professor Fabian Schar from the University of Basel has become my new personal hero by completing the debate as follows:
“”Forget the price prediction. There is really no way of knowing where to go. It is also the least interesting thing about halving. Because so many interesting parameters and so many things happen behind the scenes, so many observations that we have to maker ”
The relationship between Bitcoin and Altcoins has always given very confusing signals. Bitcoin is the king of the ecosystem. And in a way the most conservative and relatively stable currency. In the past, we have seen that when Bitcoin rises, altcoins also rise, victims of the same greed. However, this has not always been the case. We saw many Bitcoin rises last year, but altcoins overall stagnated. Here you could say that they were creepy walks. There was the optimism that was needed to increase Bitcoin, but not enough to promote altcoins.
In addition, in some cases, people liquidate their positions in altcoins when they notice more momentum in bitcoin. They sacrifice their old coins to get on the Bitcoin train. Here Bitcoin increases its dominance in the crypto space. In this case, Bitcoin rises and Altcoins fall.
The reverse scenario is planned in these krypton messages. People are now selling Bitcoin to buy altcoins. Something strange, but possible. The greed in the system certainly increases, but the resistance of the 10,000 is very strong. Many see old coins as an opportunity. And that could indicate that old coins are waking up.
Bitcoin advocates are in shock at the impetus from the recovery plan. The Federal Reserve’s measures were even compared to Zimbabwe’s monetary policy. Inflation! Inflation! The four winds are shouting, but I am confused with these cries of despair. Is inflation a problem in the US? When we look at the reports, we see that inflation is not a problem in the United States. In fact, the problem is now a “deflation spiral” that is forming. The idea of stimuli is to stop deflation. Demand is on the spot and needs to recover. Without these stimuli, the deflationary picture could cause an epic crisis. The person in shock has invited you to check inflation data, current and estimated. When they see this data, they are suddenly afraid.
All of this economic liquidity is expected to increase demand and market prices. That includes Bitcoin. I honestly don’t see any problem with the rise in Bitcoin price thanks to the liquidity of the dollar.