The price of Bitcoin (BTC) went from $ 7,700 to $ 9,500 in just 48 hours from Wednesday to Thursday, increasing more than 22%. The market has since cooled and the main cryptocurrency is falling below $ 9,000.
All key data – such as spot market data, futures volume and institutional demand – suggest that the increase from $ 3,000 to $ 8,000 was purely organic. This was fueled by real demand from retail investors, and possibly whales, that came in by reducing the Bitcoin block reward.
It is unclear whether the rapid increase from $ 8,000 to $ 9,500 was organic or caused by incorrect futures market orders. According to Skew, futures volume rose sharply as Bitcoin rose from $ 8,000 to $ 9,500, while remaining relatively low in April. Aslant he said::
“The volume of futures has increased significantly in the past two days due to the rapid split of $ 8,000 and $ 9,000. This reflects what happened on March 12th. Nearly $ 40 billion was traded yesterday. “
Bitcoin futures volume rises to levels on March 12, April 29 and 30. Source: Aslant
Market data shows that less than two weeks before the halving, the structure of the cryptocurrency market has transitioned from futures trading to spot trading platforms. The healthy transition from overfunded trading to organic spot trading can provide a solid foundation for the upcoming Bitcoin rally.
Bitcoin premiums halved in about ten days and have a significant impact on the Bitcoin mining industry. It will immediately reduce the amount of Bitcoin that producers can mine by checking transaction blocks, thereby lowering the rate of launching new Bitcoin on the market. The halving mechanism complements Bitcoin’s trend as it approaches its fixed offer of $ 21 million. Since there can only be 21 million Bitcoin, halving slows down the production rate.
But the story about bitcoin halving could be overkill. In previous halving in 2012 and 2016, the price of Bitcoin did not respond significantly until 10 or 11 months after the halving. In the short term, Bitcoin is facing strong resistance levels of $ 9,200, $ 10,400, and $ 11,400. in a high time frame. It has crucial support in the $ 7,400 to $ 7,600 range and a loss that could bring Bitcoin back to $ 5,000.
Traders explain the current trend of bitcoin prices
Speaking to Cointelegraph, crypto trader Eric Thies said that Bitcoin’s charts are very promising as the halving approaches on May 12th. He said this:
“In the previous two halves, BTC showed strength by rising to 40% of what was then ATH. At each of these earlier events, BTC continued to rise over a year and then a year and a half. Bitcoin appears to be starting its current path on the way there , just like in previous halving. “
Bitcoin’s medium-term trend is bullish, but Thies emphasized that repetitions of lower support levels and withdrawals are inevitable in the short term. “Apart from these points, it should be noted that the latest 25% gains will not occur without repetitions and setbacks from the old resistance to consolidate the upward momentum,” he added.
For Bitcoin to remain in an uptrend after halving it, it would have to defend the $ 7,100 support level and avoid falling back to the $ 6,000 range. If it can hold well above the $ 7,100 level, Thies believes that $ 10,600 is a viable target in May. He noticed:
Assuming support remains after a first iteration of our recent gains and the bulls are maintaining the current momentum they have built, we should see $ 10.6K in May and test the current price high on further testing the following months . “
Bullish scenario for Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s short and medium term bullish scenario, as Thies explained, is quite simple. Technical indicators such as the moving average of convergence / divergence or the MACD for short periods – even weekly – signal the beginning of a new upward movement. A cryptocurrency trader called RookieXBT he said::
“I’m not a fan of indicators, but I had pointed it out. MACD on the weekly bullish crossover again. Interesting times halfway.”
A new MACD trend is starting on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. Source: RookieXBT
Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) ranges from 80% to 90%. A value of over 75% indicates high overbought conditions for an asset. Since the RSI can remain oversold for a long period of time during a proper recovery, the likelihood of a sustained uptrend is still high if Bitcoin can avoid a significant retreat in the $ 4,000-5,000 range. Thies also said:
“Although these resistances [9.200, 10.400 y 11.400 dólares] They won’t be easy to break, this setup on the macro side is impressive and continues to grow with every resistance Bitcoin recovers. There will be a consolidation and things have to slow down to keep the market a bit under control. To achieve this, the bulls must maintain the $ 7.1K mark. Here, different time frames indicate that strong support is more emphasized. “
More and more traders are tending towards a declining scenario for Bitcoin
After refusing Bitcoin at $ 9,500 and re-entering the region at $ 8,000, more traders are considering the possibility that Bitcoin will see a local cap rather than a bullish continuation above $ 10,000. Crypto trader Michael van de Poppe said that while $ 4,000 and $ 5,000 are no longer visible, a healthy return to the $ 6,000 zone is appropriate. He said the:
“I don’t think there will be a $ 4,000-5,000 increase again, especially after halving. However, a healthy retreat seems reasonable, which is likely to happen after halving. The potential targets for these areas are one 200 weeks MA test around $ 6,500-7,000. “
Also Mohit Sorout, founding partner of Bitazu Capital described $ 9,500 as “a logical place for Bitcoin to take a breather,” suggesting that Bitcoin’s intense rally may be losing steam in the near future.
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a strong level of resistance. Source: Mohit Sorout
Another trader, known as Big Chonis Trading, noted that the strong boom in Bitcoin since the end of April has led to the formation of a “TD9” on the Bitcoin daily chart. TD9 is a sell signal in the TD Sequential system that is triggered when an asset sees an overstretched rally and needs to be corrected. “Halving #bitcoin in 11 days … … long enough for another FOMO bomb …? Difficult to ignore how yesterday’s candle closed and opened on a TD9 today,” wrote the dealer in a tweet.
Zoran Kole, a technical analyst for cryptocurrency, said the $ 7,700 to $ 8,000 range is the next rational range for Bitcoin support. He noted that the bears suffered excessive upward movement up to $ 9,500 throughout the ride and the bulls showed euphoria, which increased the likelihood that it would be an upper limit. Kole he said::
“Personally, I think the local cap is already being seen. It is a bit premature to name it, but it looks like an SFP of the 9.2 liquidity gap. The bears have gone to hell. The buyers are euphoric. I would happy to see that 84xx continues The opposite of 7.7-8,000 is the next area of long-term interest. “
Bitcoin rejections on an important trend line. Source: Nunya Bizniz
The negative short-term outlook for Bitcoin coincides with Thies’s downward scenario, which said that dropping below $ 7,000 would increase the likelihood that the downward trend would resume. Thies said to Cointelegraph:
“If necessary, $ 6.8 thousand and $ 6.4 thousand are below, but moving to these levels would indicate a continuation of the downtrend that led to prices of only $ 3,800 last year, after reaching a maximum of around $ 15 thousand in July 2019 “.
The confluence of Bitcoin’s rejection on an important March 12 trendline, a TD9 sell signal, the rally stop right at Bitcoin’s February break, and Bitcoin’s tendency to see Selling news sales makes a correction after halving very likely.
However, Bitcoin’s remarkable surge in demand, which is reflected in a massive increase in spot market volume and institutional interest, could serve as a suitable basis for a sustained rally. Thus, despite the price increase of 163% from USD 3,600, the continuation of an upward trend for Bitcoin cannot be ruled out.