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The second Brexit referendum loses bellows in campaign and depends on the tactical vote to deprive Johnson of the majority

December 8, 2019

Corbyn's lack of support for permanence and polarization leaves a new consultation at the expense of Johnson's balance on Thursday


The demand for a second referendum on the permanence of the United Kingdom in the European Union has not achieved the expected preeminence in the campaign of the British generals next Thursday and its survival no longer depends on its power of conviction in the street, but on the unlikely failure of the conservatives of Prime Minister Boris Johnson in his rush to obtain the absolute majority.

Despite the advantages that Brexit key elections seemed to offer that, crucially, constitute the last opportunity for those who aspire to reverse the verdict of June 23, 2016, the viability of a new consultation is intrinsically subordinated to the balance that Johnson collects this Thursday: if you get the results that the polls anticipate for the conservatives, the trip will be over for the claims of 'People's Vote'.

The second Brexit referendum loses bellows in campaign and depends on the tactical vote to deprive Johnson of the majority
The second Brexit referendum loses bellows in campaign and depends on the tactical vote to deprive Johnson of the majority

The desire that in the last three years had managed to gather hundreds of thousands of people in the successive marches convened by the platform has been progressively silenced in the countdown of 12-D, an orphan of leadership in the face of Labor warmth and the gradual collapse of the liberal-democrats, a formation that advocates the controversial automatic revocation of the exit.

The resonance of Johnson's direct appeal, with a simple 'Materialize Brexit', the magnetism of his consistent superiority in the polls and the detrimental ambiguity of the opposition in the matter complete the triptych that has condemned the desire of the second plebiscite to ostracism electoral: while the 'premier' has bashed his rhetoric exclusively around the breakup, Jeremy Corbyn has tried to divert attention from it, aware that it is one of the most vulnerable flanks of his questioned mission towards Number 10 of Downing Street


This polarization of the main parties leaves the defenders of the continuity in no man's land, although the decline during the campaign also responds to the headlong precipitated by the serious clashes that the promoters of the initiative have maintained for months. His public disputes have undermined the cause of permanence and a work that had emerged as a civic movement has suffered to adapt to the reality of parties in an electoral contest.

The fracture was partially caused by opposing strategic visions between the front that defended acting immediately to precipitate a new referendum and those who advocated simply paving the ground, waiting for the circumstances to be favorable to guarantee a call that, ultimately, I would have to protect the political fabric.

Additionally, personalism and the lack of commitment of Labor in favor of continuing in the EU have contributed to the suffocation of a claim that this Thursday faces all or nothing: only if the 'tories' do not reach hegemony would there be a window of opportunity in Westminster, since the forces that support the consultation could impose it as a condition to pass the law necessary to materialize the rupture.


This is the thesis that sustains the complex tactical voting operation promoted throughout the country. Rather than causing a change of government, its purpose is to deprive conservatives of the absolute majority, an aspiration for which they have pulled an intricate digital network and a sophisticated offensive on social networks to let voters know what option to choose in their respective constituencies to prevent Johnson from obtaining the only result that would be worth it to undertake his plans.

In this case, the plebiscite would most likely offer the choice between its Brexit proposal or the continuity in the EU. Given the unanimous adherence of the 'tories' candidates to the document signed with Brussels last October, it is unthinkable that abandoning without agreement constitutes an alternative, since even the most recalcitrant Eurosceptics of the British right have given their blessing to the sponsored formula by the leader.

The advantage of this scenario is that, unlike 2016, voting could be binding. Three and a half years ago, the verdict had an undeniable political weight, but it lacked legal validity, since the only thing outlined at the polls was the Brexit principle, with no road map to execute it. A consultation that included a formal document, on the contrary, would enjoy irrefutable legitimacy and, crucially, would placate the anti-EU front, which would obtain regulatory guarantees in a scenario that would inevitably be considered treason.


Not surprisingly, the possibility that Labor manages to form a government seems remote, according to the demonstration consensus, although if Corbyn achieves the impossible, the referendum would be a reality. Thus, the opposition has promised to renegotiate Johnson's pact and submit it to a popular vote, with the option of remaining as an alternative and, all this, in six months, a period so tight that constitutional experts have considered it virtually unfeasible.

The minimum necessary to convene a plebiscite would be 22 weeks, according to The Constitution Unit, a study group of the University College London that reveals the impossibility of rushing deadlines, due to the legal obligation to ensure a scrutiny of a process whose impartiality must be left out of doubt. Mere legislation would require eleven weeks during which tricky issues would have to be resolved, such as the question, who would vote, or what rules would prevail.

The Electoral Commission, in parallel, would acquire a fundamental role to ensure, among other factors, that the question under consultation is understandable to the electorate, a task that would take up to twelve weeks and that would have to be completed before the House of Commons authorized the referendum The campaign, meanwhile, would last ten weeks, in accordance with current regulations, including six to constitute the official sides of the contest, since, unlike ordinary elections, the role would not be for established political parties.

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