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The risk of a dramatic ether sell increases when large positions exceed the all-time high

May 14, 2020

With increasing anticipation for the long-awaited ETH 2.0 update Ether’s major positions at Bitfinex have become parabolic since February.

However, since Small positions are also growingand co-founder Vitalik Buterin withdraws his confident forecast of a start in July, The increase has also increased the risk of a violent sale.

Large ether positions become parabolic

Large positions have broken new records since more than 600,000 were registered in February, an increase of another 150% in the past two months despite the historic sale of Bitcoin (BTC) on March 12th and 13th.

The risk of a dramatic ether sell increases when large positions exceed the all-time highThe risk of a dramatic ether sell increases when large positions exceed the all-time high

Large ETH / USD positions at Bitfinex: TradingView

However, The number of small positions has also tended to increase significantly since March, almost 200% above the record lows in February. This suggests Some traders are betting on a falling ether price.

ETH / USD Small positions on Bitfinex: TradingView

ETH 2.0 release date is unclear

There has been confusion about the release date of ETH 2.0 in recent daysThis could be a factor that would cause an aggressive correction if the price action failed.

On May 12, Buterin was asked whether Phase 0 of ETH 2.0 would begin in July:

I think Ethereum 2.0 already has two test networks, Topaz and Schlesi, which were released a week ago. […] This is the first phase of ETH 2.0 that the Proof Of Stake will bring [implementación] It is making progress on all fronts.

However, Afr, the main developer, lowered expectations on Twitter the same day, specification::

It is not helpful to go to the stages or panels and set dates. I don’t think Vitalik said July. But I haven’t seen the conversation.

Buterin replied: “Yes, I didn’t say July. Maybe the question contained the word July, but I didn’t hear July when asked“”

After reviewing the pictures from the event, added: “Well, I definitely should have listened to the question in July, it was my mistake“”

Greenspan is optimistic about ether

Mati Greenspan, the founder of Quantum Economics, Confusion about the release date was not a big problem.

“Judging by the price action, it seems that Vitalik’s statements didn’t have much influence“Greenspan told Cointelegraph.”All startups tend to reschedule and fall behind, especially if they introduce major updates“”

Mati notes that Ether is third in his cryptocurrency wallet and adds: “Everything that happens at DeFi is extremely exciting […] I am bullish. “

Large ETH / BTC positions could continue to rise

The number of large ETH / BTC positions has been increasing steadily for around 12 months, except for a short return trip in January.

Large ETH / BTC positions on Bitfinex: TradingView

Although market measures indicate that the market expects the introduction of ETH 2.0 to lead to profits compared to Bitcoin, It remains to be seen whether the rewards from the newly reduced Bitcoin block will have a bearish effect on ETH / BTC prices, as happened after the halving in 2016..

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