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The prediction market is thriving during the US presidential election.

November 5, 2020

The 2020 US presidential election resulted in significant measures in forecast markets.

The co-creator of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin took to Twitter during the vote count to commend the success of the prediction platforms during the election season.in the following words:

“Regardless of who wins from here, I definitely think the prediction markets have proven to be more accurate than the polls / models this time around.”

Traditional polls have shown that Biden has an eight point lead since early November. But The future of the president has moved wildly in response to events.

The prediction market is thriving during the US presidential election.
The prediction market is thriving during the US presidential election.

The election markets in the leading exchanges for cryptocurrency derivatives FTX saw a lot of volatility on the past day. TRUMP futures rose from $ 0.38 to $ 0.80 as the votes were counted before falling. steadily as Biden’s lead on the electoral college grew.

TRUMP token, which could be exchanged for $ 1 each if won re-election, Now traded for less than $ 0.09 on FTX.

Traditional centralized bookmakers also saw large swings on election day, Trump spent much of the day leading the way until Arizona voted in Biden’s favor.

Yesterday TRUMP tokens valued at $ 16 million were traded on FTX, while BIDEN tokens were traded for nearly $ 6 million. The TRUMPWIN and TRUMPLOSE tokens from FTX generated an additional volume of 10 million US dollars.

Ethereum’s decentralized forecasting platform Augur has also been the subject of significant action with a reported total election volume of $ 8.6 million and an open interest of $ 4.75 million.. On November 4th the project Publicity::

“This year, Election Markets surpassed Augur v1’s previous 2018 house market trade volume records ($ 2.5M and $ 6M). Thank you everyone who has used or tried Augur for the first time. Us hope you stay! “

The influencing factor of Ethereum Anthony Sassano pointed out the opportunity the choice for decentralized prediction platforms presented to attract usersin the following words:

“It seems that the prediction markets have finally found their way because there was a market where people could bet on what was really important to them.”

The decentralized forecasting platform Matic-operated Polymarket also saw significant trading with a new record high of over $ 10 million. Polymarket allows traders to speculate on novel events, such as whether The Associated Press will post a tweet about the election winner before the November 6th.

According to CoinGecko, the Augur and Catnip Exchange’s YTRUMP and NTRUMP tokens have generated speculative stocks valued at around $ 1.3 million in the past 24 hours.