Germany, Spain, France and Italy are beginning to loosen their detention after two months of extreme measures. Obviously there are no simple solutions to this pandemic. What is good for health was terrible for the economy. Life or “dirty” money? It would be absurd to think in these terms. The problem is that if we go too far and completely destroy the economy, the deaths from hunger would be greater than the deaths from any other evil. In this case, the remedy would be worse than the disease. The economy is not trivial or unnecessary. In fact, it is the machine that sustains the world. And yes, his life. The path to normalcy has already started. The markets come to life because you can already see a light at the end of the tunnel. What does it mean for the economy and for Bitcoin before halving? Let’s talk about this process.
We all knew very well that restrictive measures would have a terrible economic impact. There is no production without work. And there is nothing without production. Money is nothing more than a great social contract. It is basically the trade in human relationships. And I’m afraid that a paralyzed society with closed companies cannot be very successful. Economic activity can be stopped for a while, but not indefinitely. People have to eat every day and bread requires work. The virus has not yet gone. We cannot win in this regard. However, the delivery is relaxing. We already know that this limitation will not last forever. Obviously, this is all a step-by-step process. Nothing will happen overnight. And surely we will have a new normal. But at least we started the process. We didn’t have that before. Before that, the uncertainty was much greater.
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New economic reports appear this week. Of course, all the numbers are creepy. Businesses everywhere are losing money. There is no income. It’s that simple. And of course, unemployment soared due to this economic paralysis. This means that the reserve money is running low and the debt is accumulating. The domestic economy is in trouble. At home, away from the virus, but without money. And what does that mean for the economy? Due to the sudden drop in demand, we have a strong deflationary picture. However The unlimited plans tell us a better future.
Money has to move so that the economy creates prosperity. Demand encourages supply. People produce knowing that they will have buyers. Prices drop without demand. Companies are less profitable. Less incentives to produce more. Create unemployment. And everything is a chain reaction. The world is full of things. But when everything suddenly stops These things are not worth anything. Because its value depends on human desire. In other words, Falling demand is causing all this mess. And it is the increasing demand that brings us out of the well.
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The recovery obviously does not happen immediately. Companies will open their doors at some point, but that does not mean that we will be in the same situation as before the closure. Because it will take a while for indolence to be overcome. It will be a long process to overcome this crisis. For the simple fact that our purchasing power is now lower. Our assets are worth less. We have less money in our pockets. And our debts weigh more. Hence we will return to the “normal” with a broken wing. We can fall in a second, but getting up and healing the wound always takes a little longer. That is the economy. We can stop the economic move in three by two, but restarting the engines is not an easy process.
The real economy will not recover so easily. It’s slow. However, the financial markets are more vulnerable to more violent changes. Investors initially underestimated the virus’s ability to spread. But then when things got complicated, everything went down. Everything fell. Stock markets, gold, oil and bitcoin. The crypto community was very surprised by this Bitcoin crash, as it raised false expectations of Bitcoin’s behavior during a crisis. So or clearer?
For reasons more related to ideology than evidence, Bitcoin enthusiasts (flaws) thought the corona virus would take Bitcoin to new heights. According to them, the world would be looking for a safe haven in the middle of the crisis in Bitcoin. Obviously that didn’t happen. Many cryptanalysts do not accept this and are constantly rejected. Have you heard of cults that predict the end of the world for a specific date? The date comes and nothing happens, but they don’t admit their mistake, oh no, but justify the whole thing with a cheap argument. Well, the same thing happens in the crypto space. V.in the data, but they don’t see the data. See what you want to see. Come a dream, not reality.
What really happened During the crisis, buyers fled due to the uncertainty of the restriction. And the fear brought sales. When demand drops and sales increase, prices drop and there is no argument. Dreams are very nice, but investors don’t always listen to dreamers. And it’s the investors who determine the price. The interesting thing about all of this is that the price has dropped so much, but the only way up is now. Panic scared off all the creepy people. Sellers are sold out and buyers appear again. The corona virus crisis may not be as good for Bitcoin as some had hoped, but the recovery could be spectacular. Confidence will return at some point and investors will realize that everything is indeed oversold. That means everything is at a gift price.
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Despite the protests from loyal supporters of the Austrian business school (so numerous among crypto enthusiasts), the bailout plans and liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will have a positive impact on the economy. This money will stimulate demand. And demand increases prices. Where is all the incentive money going? Well, at least part of it will go to Bitcoin. I’m sorry, but I won’t cry over it.
I don’t make predictions. But I think Bitcoin currently has a very good price. That is, by X or by Y it is undervalued. Sooner or later The market will recognize your mistake and the price will adjust. The conditions for a future increase will be in place at some point as the halving will affect supply and demand will increase due to the abundance of available money and the possible economic recovery of the post-coronavirus era. Despite the crisis, we can still believe in the future.