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The pandemic has just started: experts

July 13, 2020

Studies show that in the most infected areas of the world, the antibody population does not exceed 15% and remains as susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 as on day one.

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The pandemic has just started: expertsThe pandemic has just started: experts

There is a sentence that the WHO repeats for weeks: “The worst is yet to come” and everything seems to indicate that it is so. The published seroprevalence studies show that in the most infected areas of the world, the antibody population does not exceed 15%.

What does that mean? That the majority of the population is still so vulnerable SARS-CoV-2 as the first day.

The Lancet, one of the most prestigious medical journals in the world, gave a general overview of the situation of the pandemic in the world, in which more than 100,000 new cases were reported in the United States, Brazil and India alone between June 26 and June 3 . July. This is the panorama.

Confirmed cases in the world. Source: Johns Hopkins University

New epicentres of the pandemic

US. It focuses the majority of new cases worldwide (53,213 of the 128,481 confirmed on July 4) and a quarter of all deaths.

Central Asia. Kazakhstan recorded many cases in the first days of July, but eventually ran out of evidence. People die of pneumonia even though everyone believes it is COVID-19, but the government denies it and it cannot be confirmed. For its part, Turmekistan has not reported a single case on its territory, and the Tajik data is a disaster. But perhaps what worries the experts most is the high number (from 2.7 to 4.2 million) of Central Asian workers who temporarily lived in Russia and stayed in no man’s land (administratively and healthily speaking).

Middle East. The region is headed by Iran and Saudi Arabia. However, the latter is not representative of its neighbors’ response, as it has enabled a virtually unlimited budget line to fight the pandemic by expanding intensive care units and making medical care de facto free. This is not the case in most of the worst affected countries, where 66% of the population are at risk of exclusion and face enormous problems in fighting the pandemic.

The Lancet points to problems with the oxygen supply in Iraq. However, the extremely precarious situation in conflict countries such as Syria or Yemen leads to concerns that the data could be worse.

Indian subcontinent. Pakistan is among the countries reporting the most cases, but it seems to be a minor problem compared to its neighbor. And it is the case that after three months of strict detention in India, the number of cases increases again. Although the number of COVID-19 cases has not yet increased significantly in some of the largest Indian states, the health system in places like Maharashtra, Delhi and Gujarat has collapsed so much that the Indian army has had to take much control of the situation. The main problem is that the structural deficits in Indian health remain unchanged and that a pandemic knocking on doors is bad news.

Latin America. Here, too, there is a country that attracts everyone’s attention: Brazil. His numbers can give the wrong impression that he is the only one who is seriously affected. However, countries such as Mexico, Colombia, Peru, Chile and Argentina have difficulty smoothing the curve as quickly as possible.