The Democratic Party primaries do not yet make it clear who will face Trump on November 3, 2020
WASHINGTON, Nov. 3 (EUROPE PRESS) –
On November 3, 2020, Americans will be called back to the polls for elections that will have the White House as their main battlefield. Donald Trump, who three years ago consumed a meteoric conversion from businessman to politician, faces the last twelve months before the big day with the Democrats still moving token to see what is the best way to stand up to him.
Trump came to the 2016 election behind his Democratic rival, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, but maximized his controversial profile to the point of surprise and in January 2017 becoming president of the United States. Already in the White House, the New York tycoon maintained the same line and, facing 2020, few doubt that it will remain the same.
Most surveys place him less popular at this point than other predecessors – around 40 percent. Trump has struggled to question the validity of these polls, although the truth is that even his headline, Fox News, also collects similar data.
With Twitter by speaker, the president boasts popular support and economic data that he uses as the main bulwark to defend his three years of government. The social network has also become the main channel to express criticism against the Democratic opposition, especially following the opening of investigations in Congress for a possible political trial (known by the English term of 'impeachment').
The president of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, had been reluctant for months to hear the voices of the progressive minority that claimed to launch a delicate process and of uncertain outcome. The straw that broke the glass was a phone call in July and in which Trump urged his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodimir Zelenski, to investigate alleged irregularities – never confirmed – related to former vice president Joe Biden and his son Hunter.
The diffusion of the transcript evidenced these pressures, but Trump, far from ducking his head, took out his chest and continued to question Biden without evidence. The president has even raised the stakes by repudiating the anonymous official who first alerted the content of the call and the Democratic leaders who are on the frontline in Congress.
DEMOCRATS PLAY IT
The researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute Carlota García Encina has explained to Europa Press that, with that call on the table, Pelosi “had no choice” but to take the final step. The 'impeachment' theoretically “is lost” – Republicans are a majority in the Senate – but the Democrats play with the advantage of being able to expose to public opinion “a case against Trump.”
“They are playing,” said Garcia Encina, who believes that Trump has a solid block in Congress after “uniting everyone around his figure,” especially after the death of Senator John McCain, a loose verse in the speech line marked from the White House.
Most of the polls published by the US media estimate that approximately half of the citizenship is favorable to initiate an 'impeachment', even though the process is still in the primary phase and it is not even clear what the timetable will be. The House of Representatives approved on Thursday the 'road map', in a first vote that evidenced the division between the two blocks.
Congressional sources cited by the Reuters agency have said that the goal is to conclude before the end of the year the collection of evidence to prove that Trump was able to commit abuse of power or obstruction of Justice. In the Democratic ranks, however, the division persists between those who believe that the testimonies and documents collected are enough and those who want to tie more and better the basis of the political trial, with views not so much to convince the Senate, where Republicans are the majority , like the American on foot.
One of the main Democratic fears, especially considering the closeness of the upcoming presidential elections, is that Trump can present himself as a victim of a persecution, a profile he has already begun to draw at the stroke of tweets. The president has said he feels the victim of a “fraud”, of a “witch hunt” that would have begun with investigations into Russian interference in the last elections and that already sounds like gunpowder burned in the opposition's speech.
Of the three 'impeachments' initiated in the history of the United States, only two have reached their final phase – Richard Nixon resigned earlier – and in the case Bill Clinton, questioned by his lies in the 'affair' with Monica Lewinsky , the republican pressure not only did not end up knocking him down but he also showed his level of support among the citizens.
THE BATTLE IS STILL OPEN AMONG ITS RIVALS
Trump, meanwhile, follows his own. Internationally, the last few weeks have been marked by the unexpected withdrawal of troops in Syria, which has given the green light to a Turkish offensive, the death in a special forces operation of the leader of the Islamic State terrorist group, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi , and its constant threats to countries that do not agree to abide by their criteria in tariff, immigration or military matters.
The Democrats, meanwhile, try not to bet all their cards on the process of 'impeachment', with a process of primaries in which the different candidates have begun to expose their great lines of work in the case of being elected. Biden started the process as a favorite and still stands at the top, although his pedestal does not seem so unattainable.
Senator Bernie Sanders, who in the previous campaign already surprised him by complicating Clinton, was a priori the second option, but he has deflated and the recently suffered heart attack has forced him to slow down. Instead, the polls perceive a rise of Senator Elizabeth Warren, who shares a progressive profile with Sanders in the face of Biden moderation.
García Encina has affirmed that the battle between the candidates is “even”, but reduces the possibilities to Biden, Warren, Sanders and the other two candidates with more support in the polls, Senator Kamala Harris and the Mayor of South Bend (Indiana) Pete Buttigieg
The researcher has warned that everything depends on how each one of them does in the first measures in the primary, which will start by states in which Warren seems to be gaining strength, which could generate a “domino effect” against Biden
In any case, go to the Democrats with “possibilities” for 2020, where 'a priori' have the best letters to be re-imposed by popular vote. García Encina has pointed out that they should propose a “good strategy”, for example trying to tip the balance in key states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
The polls do not anticipate for now a clear victory for any of the candidates against Trump, who only has to be proclaimed again champion of the Republican Party to the next elections. The swords in any case are already high and the countdown to November 3, 2020 has begun.
García Encina expects the 'impeachment' to be one of the factors to consider, but has also urged an economy that does not necessarily have to play for Trump – there are “clouds on the horizon” – or a foreign policy that, although historically it has not been internally key, it could be this time if what is at stake is “the role of the United States in the world”.