These are difficult times for the world of scientific and rational thinking. Every group has their opinion. And these opinions become “facts”. We only accept statements that confirm our previous ideas. And we ignore any elements that contradict our biased “truth”. Intuition now tells us what is true and what is a lie. And all evidence is a vulgar joke. In other words, we live in the world of suspicion. Nothing is what appears. It’s all part of a big secret plan. All authority is presumed. Every expert is part of the conspiracy. The enemy is hidden and everything is evil.
Now let’s analyze the role of paranoia, confirmatory bias, and evasion of evidence within the Bitcoin community. Why is it so important to understand this very well before investing?
The Bitcoin community is much more diverse than it claims to be. Not all think alike. But still, There is a group of crypto influencers who repeat the same story over and over again. This “narrative” gives Bitcoin its ideological element and thus creates its own universe. It is not a secret to anyone that the stereotypical Bitcoiner has very specific ideas about business, money and the world. To the convert, these ideas are presented as revelation. Some kind of lighting. Something like the young Siddhartha who becomes a Buddha under the Bodhi tree. That is, an awakening.
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But still, For the rest of mortals savvy on the matter, these religious fanatics are not the heroes of the film, but a lost youth speaking sheer nonsense. Let’s imagine for a second that we are at a party and have four groups. On the one hand, we have several people from Wall Street. Let’s say the employees at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Then we have several economics professors. Let’s say Yale and Stanford. And to create even more excitement, we could involve various government officials. Treasury and Central Bank. We finally have the typical bitcoin. Millennial, know-it-all, intense. The conversation? The future of the economy.
4 groups: banking, science, government and bitcoin. One topic: the future of the economy. The bitcoiner would likely start talking about the possible collapse of the dollar. The importance of a scarce currency. The problem of inflation. Irresponsible money pressure. Fault. The free market. The separation of state and economy. The rights of privacy. The power of decentralization. The eventual universal introduction of Bitcoin. The blockchain. The Bretton Woods Agreement. Nixon’s shock. Bitcoin as a safe haven. The libertarian utopia. Etc.
Holy god! It’s just too much. Surely the other groups would know where to start after a long and uncomfortable silence. Suddenly the most important difference is the tone of the speech and the pessimistic reading of reality. Basically we are faced with an essentially messianic narrative. That is, we are on the edge of the abyss, but the Savior has already been born. “Bitcoin fixes that”.
The conversation may not end on good terms. It would be three against one. The “traditional” side (banking, government, and academia) would say the bitcoin is insane or misdirected. The Bitcoiner would say that the others are dull, agents of the system and part of the problem. The bitcoiner will go home proud of his fight against the “enemy”. And I’d browse YouTube and Twitter in search of community warmth. Under the “volleys” you will find compression and validation.