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The electoral order with which Johnson risks everything

December 11, 2019

The 'premier' says that it is the only option to unlock divorce, but the last macro-survey prior to 12-D questions hegemony


The germ of the third generals that the United Kingdom faces in four years emanates from a captivating ordeal prefabricated by the prime minister, Boris Johnson, to justify the electoral call as the last emergency resource to materialize a Brexit that, according to its campaign manual, He had been repeatedly blocked by Parliament.

Before he had even submitted a proposal to leave Westminster, Johnson had already written the script and has managed to remain faithful to the argument that aims to underpin his presence on Downing Street under the pernicious rhetoric 'The People Against the System'.

The electoral order with which Johnson risks everythingThe electoral order with which Johnson risks everything

According to the plot, he is the leader who is with the people, the defender of the democratic essences expressed in the referendum, against the intransigence of a plethora of institutions unable to accept the verdict of June 23, 2016, beginning with the House of Commons.

It matters little that the deputies had approved the principle of their breakup agreement at the end of October, or that the only thing they had claimed was more than three days to analyze the 115 pages of the law that would formalize it, in other words, to demand a margin equivalent to that of any ordinary legislation: the conservative oratory preaches that Parliament is to blame for the paralysis and the message has to last until December 12.

The challenge, however, is not free either and, in addition to sowing a poisonous seed of discontent that drinks the most populist artifice, it carries a lethal risk: of failing its calculations and not achieving the absolute majority, Johnson will not only have compromised his survival, or the British territorial cohesion, in check from the plebiscite, but the very viability of the divorce that, almost four years ago, had assumed as an instrument to realize its successive ambitions.


The conservative leader has reasons for the concern: the last macro-survey before the elections, published on Tuesday, reduced the absolute majority he estimated only two weeks ago from 68 to 28 deputies and, most worrisome for his party, the margin of error from the study does not rule out a House of Commons without hegemonies. Conducted by YouGov between December 4 and 10 from more than 105,600 interviews, the methodology assumes a complex method of analysis and projection that allows determining the results in each constituency.

The challenge that awaits Johnson on Thursday is, therefore, huge, but so are the dividends for a leader who considers himself a winner, with unorthodox methods, but enough to allow him to succeed triumphantly from all the efforts to which he has dedicated time and effort throughout his career, first as a journalist and, later, in a political arena to which from the beginning he launched with Number 10 as the final goal.

His strategy since his arrival at the official residence four and a half months ago has been to exploit the deep disaffection that the referendum cemented in the street, trusting that, in generals, this rhetoric would favor his re-election.

The tactic had been successfully tested during the tumultuous 2016 campaign and, given the broad advantage with which Johnson started in the polls, the challenge was only to avoid the mistakes of his predecessor, Theresa May, before the same mission, that is, a electoral advance to facilitate the breakup.

For her, the loss of hegemony meant being held hostage to the hard anti-EU core of her party, of which Johnson was a part, the same one who knocked down the divorce agreement presented by the former Prime Minister, Theresa May, three times. to formalize the exit, two of them with the vote of the current 'premier', who circumstantially only changed his mind to the third, after May promised to leave office, if the proposal went ahead.


This is precisely the part of the story that his successor overlooks in the campaign when he accuses Westminster of blocking Brexit: in front of europhile deputies who always backed the road map to execute it, both he and many of the ministers who today they accompany him in the Government had boycotted her, to the point of being partially responsible for the fact that the United Kingdom had not left the European Union on March 29, the original date scheduled for Brexit.

The danger that Johnson does not seem to take into account is that this severe impairment of trust in the political and institutional fabric will affect anyone who acquires the right to remain on Downing Street for the next five years.

The opportunistic rhetoric with which he now aspires to collect maximum revenue at the polls could chronify the toxicity that has marked the electoral countdown, emptying the list of culprits that the prime minister can hold responsible if hospital waiting lists continue to increase, the The economy remains stagnant, or the reality of commercial negotiation is not the simple procedure that I had anticipated.

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