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The calm before the storm? 5 Bitcoin price factors to be seen this week

June 22, 2020

Bitcoin (BTC) is starting a new week of trading with a well-known broker under $ 10,000. Will it stay there or will volatility come?

The weekly newsletter from Cointelegraph Markets gives us Five factors that will affect Bitcoin’s price development in the coming days.

Stocks are recovering from coronavirus concerns

The beginning of this week marks a clear contrast to last Monday. Concerns about the corona virus and with it the volatility of the stock market has subsided.

The calm before the storm? 5 Bitcoin price factors to be seen this weekThe calm before the storm? 5 Bitcoin price factors to be seen this week

The general conditions for stock futures remain uncertain, but more stable than seven days ago.

In order to, Bitcoin was able to avoid sudden movements over the weekend and continued to move within a limited range of $ 9,200 to $ 9,500.

BTC / USD has been the focus of BTC / USD for several weeks, and the previous resistance has been difficult to overcome.

Cointelegraph pointed this out in our previous newsletter Despite signs of a “decoupling” of Bitcoin from the macro markets since March, broad correlations remain. Research has also shown that Historically, BTC / USD correlated strongly with the SP 500.

Bitcoin vs. SP 500 3-month chart

Bitcoin vs. Chart 3 months S P 500. Source: Skew

Bitcoin difficulty and hash rate stabilize

Another contrast are the basics of the Bitcoin network.

Last week, miners prepared for the greatest adjustment to the upward difficulties in two and a half years. The conditions are much calmer this time; The next adjustment is planned for nine days and is currently a modest 5.6%.Bitcoin 7 day average difficulty level 2 month chart

Bitcoin 2-month average difficulty. Source: Blockchain

Likewise, Bitcoin’s mining hash rate has stabilized in recent daysHold at an average of 105 EH / s after displaying 111 EH / s after setting.

Relaxation comes after the data shows this Since halving the block grant in May, more Bitcoin performance has been added to the Bitcoin network than ever before since the beginning of the upward trend in 2017.

BTC options are preparing for a massive process

This Friday is the moment of truth for Bitcoin derivatives. As Cointelegraph reported Almost 1 billion options expire on June 26.

Such events have tended to affect Bitcoin price sentiment immediately before.. This time, the prevailing mood seems bullish; Most “call” options focus on the $ 10,000 mark.

Meanwhile, The volume on the Bitcoin futures markets has shown little sign of an upward trend in the past few daysThe open interest also stagnated.

Futures avoided a “gap” over the weekend due to Bitcoin’s lack of price volatilityIf markets open in a different location than last Friday, BTC / USD will tend to rise or fall to close the gap.

3-day chart for Bitcoin futures with no gaps

Bitcoin futures chart shows the absence of the 3-day gap. Source: TradingView

The reserves of the stock exchanges are falling again

The bitcoin amount on the exchanges has returned to its downward trend after a peak after halving.

According to the CryptoQuant chain monitoring resource The exchange bookings have now returned to their lowest level in the past two years.

Traders who remove funds from the stock exchanges want to hold short-terminstead of having coins ready for sale in the event of volatility.

As of June 21, the purses contained 2.35 million BTC. In contrast, on March 13, when BTC / USD fell to USD 3,600, reserves peaked at BTC 2.73 million.

Bitcoin Exchange Reserves 1-year chart

1-year reserve chart for Bitcoin exchanges. Source: CQ.Live

Neither fear nor interest?

It even seems so when it comes to dealers Your feeling shows signs of a slow U-turn, from bearish to neutral or better.

According to the latest readings from the Index of Fear and Greed, Traders’ mood shows signs of recovery after showing “fear” in the past week.

In a diagram from 0 to 100 The index takes several factors into account to measure whether traders are too bullish or bearish.

The value of 38/100 on Monday is one point higher than at the weekend. The index’s most bullish since halving was 56, while 37 was the low.

Worldwide search interest for 3-month chart

3 months global search interest graph for “Bitcoin”. Source: Google Trends

At the same time, Google Trends data shows that general interest in Bitcoin has now reached its lowest level since the March decline. The phenomenon was already visible at the end of last month when the halving disappeared from the spotlight.