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The Bitcoin price is below $ 9,200, but the data show optimism among investors

July 1, 2020

Cointelegraph previously reported today that “despite a surprising drop to $ 3,750 on March 13, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) was the strongest second quarter performance in history”. The skew data also shows that Bitcoin currently has a quarterly return of 42.39% and the digital asset continues to perform best in 2020 with a return of 27.31%.

% Return on macro assets for the previous year

% Return on macro assets for the previous year. Source: Skew

The Bitcoin price is below $ 9,200, but the data show optimism among investorsThe Bitcoin price is below $ 9,200, but the data show optimism among investors

The data of the chain analysis provider, Glass knot, They also showed that since Black Thursday collapsed, the total number of Bitcoin whales has increased to more than 1,800 in the past 3 months and is above the 2017 high.

Another positive sign of investor sentiment towards Bitcoin is a recent cryptocurrency manager survey. Bitcoin IRA, This shows that 43% of the platform’s customers expect the price of Bitcoin to exceed USD 15,000 by the end of 2020.

After surveying 300 of his clients, the manager found that 57% of participants confirmed that they buy and own crypto assets as a long-term investment.

Each of these dates underscores the growing optimistic sentiment regarding the Bitcoin price., despite the fact that short-term price movements show Trade the best-placed crypto asset in a neutral zone.

The Bitcoin price continues to consolidate

BTC / USDT daily chart

BTC / USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

At the time of writing this article The price is still between 20 MA and the center line of a descending channel. The resistance level between $ 9,200 and $ 9,550 remains an obstacle that the digital asset must overcome.

As discussed by Cointelegraph Markets, The daily 4-hour timeframe for the Bollinger Bands shows consolidation and how Bitcoin forms higher lows in the daily timeframe, although the trading volume is relatively flat.

In a recently released update of the Bitcoin market for your customers Delphi Digital, found that “Bitcoin has been operating in a relatively narrow area for a month and spends much of its time between $ 9,000 and $ 10,000.”

BTC-USD vs. 30-day volatility

BTC-USD vs. 30-day volatility. Source: Delphi Digital, Bloomberg

The research group also found that “BTC’s 30-day volatility has dropped to the lowest level of the year that was historically preceded by significant price movements when volatility reversed.”

BTC-USD vs. Intermediate price range

BTC-USD compared to the price range between days. Source: Delphi Digital, Coinbase, Gemini

Delphi Digital also noticed that as The Bitcoin price is consolidated between the overall key resistance and the key underlying support zone. Daily volatility decreased, This indicates that a strong directional movement is imminent.

Volatility, COVID-19 and its correlation.

As the coronavirus pandemic caused a sharp correction in the stock markets in early March 2020, Bitcoin’s price development reflects that of traditional markets. The strong rally in the BTC price from $ 3,750 to $ 10,350 was in connection with the V-shaped recovery that is currently evident in the SP 500 and the Dow.

Indeed, Crypto investors are deeply interested in whether the short-term correlation between these asset classes will be maintained or whether decoupling will take place.

In private comments with Cointelegraph, Kevin Kelly, a market analyst from, Delphi Digitalsaid:

“Historically, if the SP 500 has gained 15% or more in a calendar quarter over the past 80 years (9 before), the following quarter also ended in positive territory. Now I would say that a positive third quarter is far from guaranteed for SPX, but it is still a remarkable statistic, especially if you expect BTC to continue operating in the near future in line with these riskier asset classes. “

In terms of stock market volatility and its impact on Bitcoin price developments, Kelly He explained that:

“If stock market volatility remains high (or above the historical average), I would expect the correlation between stocks and BTC to remain relatively high as well. Historically, the big peaks in the VIX coincided with big sales at BTC, for example So if we saw another violent tranche of stocks, I would expect BTC to suffer in the short term as well. ”

With good reason, securities and crypto investors continue to be concerned that markets are suffering from the sharp rise in COVID-19 infections in various regions of the United States. The European Union’s recent ban on Americans traveling to its member countries will hit American airlines and the global tourism industry.

According to Kelly:

“When you think about it, the main short-term catalysts for both are pretty similar, that is, historical political responses to a major economic collapse. In addition, currency devaluation can actually offer stocks when demand for scarcity and real assets increases. “

The analysts’ general view is that Bitcoin’s price could hit recent lows in the coming weeks if USD 8,800 support breaks down. Despite this slight short-term downward trend, BTC’s market structure and optimistic investor sentiment suggest that the digital asset remains well positioned to generate higher profits in the third quarter.