The antagonistic Castillo and Fujimori are fighting over the presidency of the most unstable Peru in recent years

The final date in the elections this Sunday in Peru faces the two candidates who arouse the most passions and dislikes in an already polarized and fragmented Peruvian society, Pedro Castillo and Keiko Fujimori. Two radically opposing trends contest the second round of parliamentary elections, which seek to put a new end to one of the most recent stories of major political instability in the region.

Castillo by Peru Libre and Fujimori by Fuerza Popular were the two most popular options in a first round that was marked by the difficult history of Peru over the past four years, with four presidents and the last six charged with corruption.

Last April, an almost unknown Castillo was the most elected candidacy among the nearly twenty applicants to tame the instability that Casa Pizarro has represented in recent years, followed by Fujimori, a classic of recent Peruvian politics, which is before its third Trying to become president.

The antagonistic Castillo and Fujimori are fighting over the presidency of the most unstable Peru in recent years
The antagonistic Castillo and Fujimori are fighting over the presidency of the most unstable Peru in recent years

The novelty, however, lies not so much in the preferences of Peruvian voters as in the opposition that both generate. While 33 percent would not vote for Castillo, according to the latest polls, 55 percent would not vote for Fujimori. The voting intention of the front runner from Peru Libre is slightly higher at 51 percent, followed by its competitor, who has cut gaps by 48.9 percent in the last two months.

Among the five candidates with the most votes the first time, none exceeded the 20 percent vote. Between Castillo -18.9- and Fujimori -13.4- they have a third of the support, so for more than half of Peruvians no one has the legitimacy to hold their position.

Also noteworthy is the number of Peruvians who abstained or voted empty-handed, more than 3.2 million, 18.6 percent. For the appointment this Sunday, the number could be higher, depending on whether the dissatisfied are pointing more in the direction of one or the other candidate or against both. In April there was already a turnout of 70 percent, around 17.7 million voters, a decrease of 11.8 percent compared to the appointment in 2016.

It remains to be seen in which direction the foreign vote will tip. Castillo, who did not get good results abroad, hopes to close his alliance with the other leftist on the first date, Verónika Mendoza, the sixth option this time, but winner among Peruvians in much of Europe alongside Cuba and Russia. .

Fujimori, for his part, was the preferred option for Peruvian migrants in Japan, Colombia, Ecuador and Argentina, so this time he will appeal to the conservative support of the voters of Rafael López Aliaga, the preferred option in North America, Brazil, Spain, or Australia, and Hernando Soto, Who scratched the voices in Asia.

In an ungovernable congress of the past two decades, the result of both the unicameral system of the Peruvian presidential regime and the country’s fragmented political class, neither Castillo nor Fujimori will gain enough strength to carry out weighty measures.

The alliances, as has been happening since 2000, will foreseeably be cumbersome and fragile, two characteristics that years ago led to quite a few scandals and agreements under the table to get the support of a bank.

Not to forget the legal number of vacancies, a recurring instrument since 2016 due to its ease of application, as only 20 percent of parliamentarians are in favor of support. With 40 percent, 52 MPs, this motion of censure is allowed to be processed and accepted with the approval of 87 of the 130 plenary sessions, 66 percent.

Pedro Castillo, a 51-year-old elementary school teacher from Cajamarca, one of the most rural regions of Peru, was the unexpected winner in the first ballot under the acronym Peru Libre, a party that openly describes itself as Marxist – Leninist-mariateguist, the latter referring to the founder of the Peruvian Socialist Party, José Carlos Mariátegui.

Castillo’s candidacy, which became one of the favorites a few weeks after the elections, has, according to analysts, managed to win the votes of the popular classes and rural areas, especially the landlocked countries traditionally forgotten by centralism, from Lima, although it already has the support some social forces and unions had.

Although the state is completely opposed to Fujimori’s neoliberal ideas in economic affairs and in the role the state has to play, it is difficult to find differences between the two when it comes to some social rights such as gay marriage or abortion a record by those who have not yet got rid of some progressive forces in Latin America.

The unexpected break-in at Castillo, the first time in more than three decades that a left force is on the verge of taking over the country, has alarmed the major conservative interest groups that have used the old spirits of communism to defeat the advance of the Peru Libre.

The media, footballers, Nobel laureate in literature Mario Vargas Llosa, a former political enemy of Alberto Fujimori, against whom he lost the election in 1990, and even the Venezuelan opponent Leopoldo López have asked not only to vote for Keiko, but also against communism, the Castillo represents, they say, and whom they have associated with Venezuela, Cuba and the Shining Path.

His proposals include a new constitution, increased budgets for agriculture and green politics, an increase in GDP from 3.5 percent to 10 percent for education, and greater state involvement in energy issues, which are now in the hands of large foreign companies.

The case of Keiko Fujimori, 45, is quite different, as the leader of Fuerza Popular comes from one of the most influential families of the Peruvian political class for the past 20 years. The daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000), who is in prison for crimes against humanity, has already announced that if she wins, she will grant her father a pardon.

In that case, she would also receive the immunity conferred upon her by the exercise of that position, for which she would be exempted for the duration of the procedure – for which she was in preventive detention for several months – which is dragged through money laundering and association to commit a crime. , because of the alleged irregular funding of its 2011 and 2106 campaigns by the construction company Odebrecht.

Fujimori, who has been imprisoned up to three times since 2018 and is currently on bail, is now filing for the third time and if she succeeds she would be the first woman and the only one who would currently do so in any country in the country Region. On the two previous occasions he stayed at the gates of Casa Pizarro.

During his campaign, Fujimori suggested using a “demodura” to fight citizen insecurity, adding that “a strong hand is not a dictatorship” but “a solid democracy to make the decisions necessary to.” to save the country again “. Conservative in morals and ultra-liberal in business, it has defended a true market economy and upheld the current constitution.

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