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Sentinel Surveillance Model estimates 26 thousand real cases of coronavirus in Mexico

April 9, 2020

Hugo López Gatell presented the figures and graphs of the statistical model that projects the maximum number of coronavirus cases in the country.

3 min read

The Undersecretary of Health, Hugo López-Gatell, reported that according to the statistical surveillance form of the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic in Mexico, called the Sentinel Model, it is estimated that there are 26,519 estimated cases of contagion in the country.

Sentinel Surveillance Model estimates 26 thousand real cases of coronavirus in MexicoSentinel Surveillance Model estimates 26 thousand real cases of coronavirus in Mexico

Image: Government of Mexico

During the daily conference at the National Palace, the official presented the figures and graphs of the statistical model that projects the maximum number of coronavirus cases in the country.

As presented tonight, there are 3,181 cases in Mexico with positive and confirmed tests for the Sars Cov 2 coronavirus, the virus that causes Covid-19, as well as 174 deaths. However, the reality of the pandemic could be greater since the Sentinel Model takes into account the total number of confirmed cases in the localities that have occurred to make a statistical inference and calculate the potential dispersion. In addition, it adds the reports of hospital admissions for Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) or respiratory diseases that could be related to the pathogen.

The Sentinel Surveillance Method is a model that seeks to understand how the pandemic actually moves, beyond the confirmed cases. That is, for each confirmed case, there would be nine without corroborating.

“Mexico uses a scientifically based efficient surveillance method that was established in 2006 and was developed jointly with the United States Center for Disease Control (CDC), the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and the World Health Organization ( WHO) in 2005 […] allows us to have a recognition of what we want to know: how the Covid-19 pandemic behaves in Mexico and how control and prevention decisions have to be made according to the reality that is At the same time it allows us to assume reality and not, as it is mistakenly thought, which is in the sense that only what is seen exists, “explained López Gatell.

López Gatell explained that this model allows a multiplication of each confirmed and observed case of Covid-19, to account for the others who, for whatever reason, failed to take the test.

Finally, the undersecretary reiterated that the best way to avoid contagion is to make a healthy distance and stay at home.

In a moment more information …

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