Keep on dreaming! Option data suggests we won’t see an Ethereum price of $ 560 this year

This week, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) prices reached new highs A series of bullish news continued to give investors hope The next bull market for cryptocurrencies will be similar to 2017.

Many inexperienced traders simply look at spot prices on the major cryptocurrency exchanges to find out which direction the price could be going. However, analyzing data from the options markets can provide additional relevant information on current market sentiment.

By analyzing the latest activity in the Bitcoin options It is clear that some trades have been placed with strikes (exercise price) that even the most optimistic analysts found unlikely. These trades include the 20 BTC in December call options on CME with a $ 70,000 strike and the 56 BTC with a $ 100,000 strike on LedgerX.

Keep on dreaming! Option data suggests we won’t see an Ethereum price of $ 560 this year
Keep on dreaming! Option data suggests we won’t see an Ethereum price of $ 560 this year

These anecdotal deals may not reflect more general market conditions, but interestingly enough The highest ether options contract for December 2020 is $ 1,120. This trade is unquestionably bullish considering there are only 42 days to go to expire, but not even close to the outstanding BTC options of a rally of 330% or more.

It is worth noting that Deribit also has ether call options for March 2021 with a strike of up to $ 1,600. Although this effect could have been caused by the start date of the ETH 2.0 set for December 1st, The strike of these options is 230% higher. This is significantly lower than Bitcoin options.

Ether options open interest per strike (in thousands of ethers). Source: Skew

As you can see in the data above, Of the $ 613 million open positions in ether options, only 28% is $ 460 or more. This situation can be partially explained by the 23% rally over the past ten days, which suggests that traders were not expecting these prices.

It’s also important to keep in mind that options will be offered on most exchanges through March 2021. We can therefore expect some optimism for the later dates. Purchase options at prices well above market levels are relatively cheap. The option to buy ETH for $ 600 in January 2021 was $ 12 two weeks ago.

Traders are more optimistic about Bitcoin

When comparing this data with the Bitcoin options markets, we see a notable difference. BTC options are significantly more bullish and There are long-place call options of $ 50,000 for June and December 2021.

Bitcion options open interest per strike (in thousands of Bitcoin). Source: Skew

See how in contrast to the ether markets There are some massive bets over $ 17,000. On this occasion, 40% of the $ 3.75 billion open positions from BTC options are $ 16,000 or more.

Bitcoin price has risen 18.5% in the past ten days, so those bullish bets would have seemed even more unreal at the time. So, ETH’s recent rally shouldn’t be an excuse for the lack of super bullish options.

That’s why, We can only conclude that Ether traders were not as optimistic as Bitcoin traders. Investors can conclude that this is a good thing as unrealistic expectations could frustrate investors.

But still, Ether investors’ lack of appetite to bet $ 17 on a 25% bull run through Dec 25 is telling.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of darer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and business move is associated with risks. You must do your own research when making a decision.

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