Bitcoin (BTC) futures worried analysts on July 10 as volume data indicated serious weaknesses and the potential for a larger withdrawal.
By uploading a weekly chart of CME Group Bitcoin futures to Twitter, analyst from Cointelegraph Markets, filbfilb, did not regret his words describing the current climate.
Filbfilb: BTC futures are “almost identical” to March
“It looks bad,” he said, noting that a volume indicator had returned to an identical configuration the week before Bitcoin collapsed to $ 3,600 in March.
“Positioning almost identical to the big drop last time and a clear descending triangle full of wicks in the resistance that works below (checkpoint).”
Specially, Trader commitments (COT), for both private customers and institutional companies, had been maneuvered just a few days before the collapse in the exact same place they were. The COT is updated on Fridays based on the data from the previous Tuesday. Therefore, the metric provides a snapshot of the status quo a few days earlier.
“I doubt a lot has changed,” said filbfilb in private comments to Cointelegraph.
CME Bitcoin futures chart with March similarities highlighted. Source: filbfilb / Twitter
The COVID-19 sale would be rejected
Bitcoin price has seen mixed moves this week as stock markets dictated moves toward $ 9,500. A drop on Thursday evening saw the BTC / USD pair support USD 9,000.
When asked whether retailers should expect an exact repetition from March, filbfilb remained more optimistic.
“I don’t think there will be an agreement like last time.”, wrote.
“However, the positioning of the great players last time started between 8.5 and 10.5 km, and that was before the weather was disturbed: these guys have more technical problems here than external risks (in my opinion).” “”
Bitcoin derivatives have triggered different stories in the past few weeks. At the end of June, an $ 1 billion open interest term event initially led to speculation about a price drop, but ultimately had no noticeable impact on the market.
Other fundamentals of the Bitcoin network remain strong, with a hash rate peaking this week at average highs and the difficulty set for a 9% upward adjustment in two days.