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Is Bitcoin’s price behavior boring? This price level is the key to a breakthrough

July 4, 2020

Bitcoin price (BTC), the top-rated cryptocurrency by market cap, has ranged between $ 8,600 and $ 10,500 since halving. During the two months of side trading (in a well-defined area, also called consolidation), the market started to move and altcoins were focused.

According to Coinmarketcap, that is currently Bitcoin market cap is USD 167,372,723,757.

In addition, the Traders and investors are constantly debating whether the Bitcoin price is still in the bullish or bearish range. Let’s take a closer look at the charts to see where Bitcoin’s price is going.

Is Bitcoin’s price behavior boring? This price level is the key to a breakthroughIs Bitcoin’s price behavior boring? This price level is the key to a breakthrough

Daily performance of the crypto market. Source: Coin360

Daily performance of the crypto market. Source: Coin360

Bitcoin needs to keep support above the crucial $ 8,600 level

Bitcoin price must Maintain critical levels above the $ 8,550 to $ 8,750 range.

BTC / USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

1-day chart for the BTC / USD pair. Source: TradingView

The Bitcoin price has been on a clear upward trend since the sharp decline in March. The upward trend is classified by higher ups and downs, and The most recent decrease is in the range of $ 8,550 to $ 8,750.

This is a significant area because Traders use these points to place stop / loss levels (Levels to stop transactions or losses). However, since Bitcoin’s price has been slowly declining and consolidating, the focus should be on volume.

Volume declined steadily during the consolidation period. This is an indication that we are not “moving”, which would mean a new trend. This move would be confirmed with a strong break above $ 10,500 or a strong break below $ 8,500.

An example is in the Consolidation period 18 months agobetween $ 3,500 and $ 4,000.

A big movement is on the horizon

In the first quarter of 2019, Bitcoin’s price was in a narrow range.

BTC / USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

1-day chart for the BTC / USD pair. Source: TradingView

This is important because it shows what is usually done over a long period of time Side trading and why the current phase is classified as such.

During the 2019 consolidation period, volume decreased over time. The real highlight of the volume came with the eruptionThis meant that the breaking traders reached their buy limit and the short sellers reached their stop / loss.

This chain reaction suddenly caused a candle of $ 1,000. If the price has been in the range for months, the outbreak is usually significant and explosive.. The longer something is in a certain accumulation period, the greater the movement as soon as it breaks.

This exact example can be seen on many old coinsbecause some of them were in a series of accumulations. One example is Zilliqa (ZIL), which has gone out of reach and has grown by 1,000% since then.

Crucial levels in smaller timeframes for the price of Bitcoin

Crucial short-term levels are essentially support between $ 8,800 and $ 9,000 and resistance at $ 9,300. The latter has been more important since then A rise in the level of $ 9,300 would indicate a continuation upwards.

BTC / USD 4 hour chart. Source: TradingView

4-hour chart for the BTC / USD pair. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour diagram shows a clear consolidation structure. Support ranges from $ 8,900 to $ 9,000that needs to be supported by the bulls. As long as this is support, a new test of the resistance zone is in sight.

Generally, the more a level is tested, the weaker it becomes. So, a new stress test at the $ 9,300 level could lead to a significant breakdown as would bring Bitcoin’s price back to the previous range.

In other words, the chances of a further decline decrease if the $ 9,300 is reclaimed.

Overall market cap maintains support above the 100 and 200 day MA

Cryptocurrency with total market capitalization 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Chart of total cryptocurrency market cap for one day. Source: TradingView

The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is also to keep he previous lower level as support.

Most importantly, the total cryptocurrency market cap continues to be above the 100 and 200 day moving average (MA). As long as these remain The market capitalization is in the bullish range.

This is because this is an important indicator of the up / down momentum. The 100- and 200-day MAs have supported the entire cryptocurrency market cycle.

With these levels as support, An outbreak of more than $ 260 billion is becoming more likely. Recovering the $ 260 billion level would also add fuel for further momentum toward new highs.

Bullish scenario for the Bitcoin price

BTC / USD 4-hour bullish scenario chart. Source: TradingView

4-hour bullish scenario chart for the BTC / USD pair. Source: TradingView

The bullish scenario has some key points. First, Support at $ 8,900-9,000 must be maintained. If this support is lost, BTC / USD is likely to drop below $ 8,550-8,750 in the bearish area.

Second, The key resistance at $ 9,300 must break to $ 9,650 for a possible recovery. Since this level is not tested, it would be the first pinto point for a higher rise. This previous resistance of $ 9,300 must be bypassed to receive support for a higher train.

However, as long as Bitcoin’s price remains below $ 10,500, the volume of the move is expected to be low. A larger outbreak would occur if the resistance zone of $ 10,000 to $ 10,500 were finally conqueredwhile multiple trigger values ​​are reached.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see one rapid increase in a few hours to the next big resistance zone from $ 11,600.

Bearish scenario for Bitcoin

BTC / USD 4-hour bear scenario chart. Source: TradingView

4-hour bearish scenario chart for the BTC / USD pair. Source: TradingView

The bearish scenario also depends on it to a great extent from the $ 9,300 level. If this level is rejected again, a new support test between $ 8,800 and $ 8,900 should be expected The weaker this support, the greater the chances that there will be more losses.

With $ 9,300 in resistance, a new test of $ 8,800-8,900 would likely result in a further decline.. If you go down from $ 8,600, you might also see a sharp drop in volume as it means the reach of the past two months would be lost.

If the price of Bitcoin falls below $ 8,600, I expect a rapid drop to $ 7,400-7,700 without the possibility of short positions.. Maintaining current support and one-day support levels would mean that the market is still in good shape.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of author and do not necessarily reflect Cointelegraph’s views. Every investment and trading movement involves risks. You have to do your own research when making a decision.

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