It’s a question everyone in this crypto world asks.There are those who say that the bull market will end on December 20th, 2021. Others say it will last at least until spring 2022. There are also opinions that we won’t have a bear market anymore with setbacks as severe as we have seen before, of up to 90%, but only a slight correction. I will analyze some opinions on this.
Pi cycle top indicator
First of all I want to mention the Pi Cycle Indicator that has predicted all bear markets to date, with impressive accuracy.
We can see that in the past three bull markets, Every time the 111-day moving average crossed the 350-day moving average x 2, it hit the high in Bitcoin price for that trend.
This indicator was created by Philip Swift in 2019. In early May 2021, the two moving averages touched but did not cross. However, Bitcoin entered a downtrend that lasted for several months.
Hence, it is a very effective way to determine if the bull market is about to end as it has never failed in the past. However, you cannot give us an estimated date when this current bull market will end, nor can you give us a possible price.
Plan B inventory-to-flow model
An analyst, of whom nobody knows exactly who he is and what his name is, but who calls himself Plan B, has developed the stock-to-flow model, which, for example, applies to precious metals such as gold, silver or platinum Amount of current existence, at the rate at which it is being produced, or the exploitation of that metal.
It is important to note that precious metals are known as assets as they have retained their value over a long period of time due to their scarcity. Bitcoin is the first digital asset that is also in short supplyHence the stock-to-flow model is applicable to it.
In the graph you can see what, even if there are serious deviations from the line that defines the price set according to the model, it is important to recognize every time you return to the line, thus confirming its validity.
You can see that the line showing the real price of bitcoin changes color as the bitcoin halving event approaches or recedes. which reduces the benefit a miner gets from finding a block and adding it to the Bitcoin chain.
It should be noted that the line went yellow and turned green in the last two bull markets before hitting an all-time high and then entering a downtrend.
If we go along this line, we see an established price of about $ 80,000 on December 20, 2021. Because I mean exactly to this day, I’ll explain it later.
It should be noted, however, that at each high point in previous bull markets, we will significantly outperform this price predicted by the model. In 2013, the model was priced at $ 174, but Bitcoin hit $ 1,138, an increase of x6.5.
In the bull market of 2017, the model had forecast a price for Bitcoin of $ 5,108. However, we came at a cost of nearly $ 20,000, which corresponds to a x4 overshoot, which corresponds to a smaller deviation than in the previous bull market.
Now, in this bull market, the S2F model marks $ 77,454 as a possible fair price for Bitcoin. Assuming the price will exceed the x3 this time around, we would be talking about $ 232,326.
The creator of the S2F model, Plan B has a price of USD 135,000 for December 2021.
So far, all of his predictions have been correct, and even if we didn’t close this month of October at $ 63,000, there is no doubt that we would have hit that price this month.
Bitcoin is below $ 34,000, sparked by Elon Musk’s energy FUD and China’s mining crackdown.
There’s also a more fundamental reason we’re seeing weakness in June and possibly July. My worst-case scenario for 2021 (price / on-chain based): Aug> 47K, Sep> 43K, Oct> 63K, Nov> 98K, Dec> 135K pic.twitter.com/hDONOVgxH1
to???? PlanB (@ $ 100 trillion) June 20, 2021
Bitcoin reserves on exchanges
One piece of information I consider when trying to spot a potential high point in the bull market is the number of bitcoins on the exchange.
It is commonly said that when we are about to top the bull market, the “Smart Money” (the Smart Money), start selling your bitcoins.
That said, when we see large Bitcoin deposits on the exchanges and the amount of Bitcoins in whale wallets goes down, we know that the whales are about to take profits. which usually ends in a big fall in the markets or entry into the bear market when the cycle is completed.
For now, however, we are seeing the opposite happening as large amounts of Bitcoin are currently being withdrawn from the exchanges.
This means that big players with a lot of capital are buying and withdrawing large amounts of Bitcoin, obviously waiting for higher prices before realizing their winnings.
Allen Au Fib multiplier
Analyst Allen Au, who publishes his analysis on Twitter and Glassnode, has developed an indicator that says that on Nov.
the #BTC The Fib multiplier model yields a projected high cycle price of $ 269,000 to $ 412,000 in December ’21.
We’re focusing on the 5,618 8,618 Fib lines which are now at $ 240,000 and $ 367,000, respectively.
Context: Worst Case (3,618 Fib) today at $ 154,000>
Plan B’s S2F Dec ’21 $ 135K (floor)
Buckle up! pic.twitter.com/aTrxXuiVEu
to???? All Au ?? § ¢ (@ AllenAu11) October 31, 2021
In his analysis, he states that the Plan B price of $ 135,000 for Bitcoin means for him that the “worst-case scenario” applies. within its analysis it reached the Fibonacci level of 3.618.
However, Allen Au mentions the Fibonacci level of 8.618 as a best-case scenario a goal of $ 367,000, which we need to achieve in less than two months.
That would be a 6x multiplication of today’s price of $ 61,000.
What do I think and what is my strategy?
Anyone who knows me knows that I like to be prepared for any situation. I was recently in Dubai and spoke to some of the most successful and famous crypto traders and youtubers in the world, such as MMCrypto, Carl from the Moon, Davinci J15, Crypto Skirmish, That Martini Guy, Stock Guru, Crypto Zombie, among others, and I could ask her for her opinion on the high point of this bull market.
There are very different opinions. It is sworn that the whales will not let Bitcoin surpass $ 94,000 and once that level is reached we will enter a 2 year bull market. Personally, I very much doubt this will happen.
There are others who say that The bull market can last much of 2022, reaching prices much higher than what any analyst mentions in their predictions. I don’t think so either.
However, I prepare for any situation to be protected in case my suspicion was incorrect.
Therefore, I have long Bitcoin and Ethereum positions open, which I will protect with a very stuck stop loss as soon as Bitcoin reaches USD 94,000, obviously already in profit. Personally, I’m preparing to see prices of $ 250,000 for Bitcoin and $ 12,500 for Ethereum.
In addition, I always have open altcoin positions, which I also hedge at any time with a stop loss. Yes, every now and then when a small drop can take me out of the market. However, the losses are minimal and nothing compared to what could rise if the market suddenly collapses.
As for the date, I think we can continue this bull market through March before entering another 2 year period until after Bitcoin halves. before spring begins again for the crypto world.
Ronny Roehrig was born in the former Democratic Republic of Germany. He has been investing in cryptocurrencies since 2016. He decided to create content in Spanish in 2020. Today it has more than 300,000 followers on YouTube, Twitter and other social networks. He has written two books (“10 Things to Know Before Investing in Cryptocurrencies” and “How to Get Out of Crisis as a Winner”).