The month of April comes to an end and the long awaited month of May shows its ears. May is so close that we can feel its heat. Three things hang around us: Bitcoin price, halving and corona virus. How will the story of this strange trio end?
With the collapse of the world, in the middle of a pandemic and in the midst of an economic crisis, Bitcoin shows great strength. It is obvious that the corona virus hit us very hard. We fell like all markets. But we are recovering (little by little). Halving is an event that creates a lot of expectation. And of course it’s an inexhaustible source of speculation. We all have a hypothesis.
Many take this into account and have still not decided whether the Lambo will be black or white. But others are on the edge of their seats because they know exactly that with Bitcoin, nothing is 100% secure. Anything can happen here. And it is advisable not to count the chicks before hatching. The moon or the fountain? We’ll see that. Now we’re talking about the week’s most read crypto messages.
No, we’re not talking about John McAfee and his crazy million dollar bet. Now it turns out that it was never a real bet. It has always been a cheap trick to get more followers. And maybe you’ve done your job. His bet made many headlines in the trade press. Of course, its credibility isn’t worth a penny now. The subject is officially a sad clown. The problem wasn’t his prediction. It would not be the first to fail in terms of predictions. The accusation was that he did not have the balls to recognize his mistake. He is a man without cover-to-cover integrity.
However There was this round and sonorous number on everyone’s lips. A million dollars! Chamath Palihapitiya, a former Facebook manager, reveals what he reads in his crystal ball. And what does your crystal ball say? A million for this year. The prediction that refuses to die because this former executive has revived it. Of course, he added a small clause as a letter under his sleeve. As he tells us, his prediction has a 10% chance of being met. It was said to be 1%, but the likelihood increased after the arrival of the coronavirus. Only God knows the reason. With this 10% probability in his prediction, the ex-manager can get the titles and all of the advertising, but no responsibility.
PlanB puts a much more reasonable number on the table. He speaks over $ 100,000. For Bitcoin, 14X is nothing absurd. Nexo co-founder Anthony Trenchev is even more conservative. He mentions the $ 50,000 figure. 7X is a viable goal. The problem with forecasting at the moment is that most of them are based on Bitcoin’s price history for the last two halves. However, this halving is different because it occurs during an unprecedented historical event (the corona virus). So I don’t know how accurate these models can be.
The halving will take place on May 11th. We are less than three thousand blocks. It was calculated for May 15, but this was recalculated according to block number 627 thousand. There is not much to say here. Furthermore The countdown started.
Lowering the block reward for miners means losses. After May 11th Your income will be half of what you get now. Today’s price doesn’t help at all. And surely many mining companies will pay for their machines. After all, nobody likes to work to lose. Of course, this affects the system-wide hash rate and the mining difficulty, which is likely to be reduced. Of course, it won’t be the end of the ends. Many operators will follow. They will cover their operating costs with their Fiat reserves, which are waiting for better prices to sell at some point. Here is the effect of halving the price. If the miners stop selling their bitcoins, the offer will be reduced. And we go to the moon.
Reminder: The impact of a halving on price doesn’t usually manifest itself overnight. This is a long process that has taken at least a few years in the past. In other words, calm down and don’t create false expectations.
Being unemployed is not easy. Spending piles up and the money in your pocket goes three times two. The corona virus has put many in a very difficult position. But we can’t go crazy. These are moments that require a lot of prudence and common sense. Bitcoin is not the solution to all problems. We have to be sensible in this regard. It is a huge advantage. However, due to its volatility, it is still a high-risk asset. You have to be very careful.
I don’t know if it is a good idea to recommend someone with no job, no income, and no money to buy Bitcoin. Suddenly, this purchase should no longer be your priority, because perhaps your priority is to put food on the table and take care of your family. Unfortunately, this is not the time to invest in this person. It’s time to look for work and stretch your money as much as possible. Pay debt. And things like that. It is also not a good idea to sell your Bitcoin now. But if you have to do it in extreme cases, you have to do it. Bitcoin is ideal for people who have a job (or income) and enough capital to invest. These are times of great opportunity for this person.
Bitcoin is not perfect and we know that. There is potential. There is an idea. But there is also a reality. Many speak of the idea with such passion that they sometimes defend a reality that does not exist. Of course, it is possible that you believe in the Bitcoin project, but see reality with a critical eye. We don’t have to be all fanatical propagandists. Being analytical doesn’t mean being a traitor. In the crypto space there are some of these ridiculous things in abundance. But the lover never listens to reasons. Passions overflow and sometimes we come, so we love defending the unsustainable and we become charlatans unintentionally. Is bitcoin faulty? Of course I do. The analyst known as Cryptocomicon speaks of three aspects here: restricted privacy, central mining and lack of stability.
Everything is possible and of course the keyboard tolerates everything. When it comes to the technical analysis of the financial markets, there is a principle that underlies this entire school of analysis: history repeats itself. And it is true. The story repeats itself in many cases, but not in all cases. Because while time sometimes moves in a circle, there are also linear movements. In other words, we can predict the arrival of sunset because for millions of years after the afternoon what we call sunset has always come. But can we predict the exact color of the dawn? Yes, halving affects the price. However, the past cannot tell us exactly how much and when. This halving is unique. And it will surely give us unique behaviors. Unique, as unique as every sunset.