Eric Wall, Chief Investment Officer of the Crypto Hedge Fund Arcane Assets, made a $ 1 million bet that Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow model would be proven wrong by 2025.
In a tweet on November 12th to his 32,700 followers wall exposed The terms of the bet provide that anyone who agrees to bet that the flowing stock or S2F model will be “broken” in less than five years will be paid $ 1 million. The CIO made that clear His definition of “breaking” is when the price of Bitcoin (BTC) “has not even reached 50% of its target”.
Although he tagged PlanB (@ 100trillionUSD), the creator of the S2F model, in his tweet, Wall later added: “This bet isn’t just for @ 100trillionUSD. If anyone else has the money to bet, I’ll take you instead.”
Not unsure? I bet $ 1,000,000 the S2FX model will be broken in less than 5 years.
That’s no joke. I’m willing to lock up the money for this with a third party we both trust, and so must you.
I define “broken” = “it didn’t even reach 50% of its target range”. https://t.co/vmDO5UkQoO
– Eric Wall (@ercwl) November 11, 2020
PlanB explained that Its S2F model sees a bright future for Bitcoin as the new offering is further reduced. The analyst estimates this (in iterations of the model) The price for BTC will be between $ 100,000 and $ 288,000 in December 2021. However, some members of the crypto community consider the popular model to be a reliable indicator of long-term Bitcoin price movements.
Another figure in the Crypto Hedge Fund decided to join the action and offer a higher payout to anyone who can prove that the model works. Ari Paul, CIO of BlockTower Capital, explained on Twitter that he would be 3-1 on the same bet against the S2F model and potentially pay $ 3 million for a $ 1 million bet. However, Paul didn’t seem very interested in gambling.
“The reason I am willing to offer this bet without having to think about the accuracy of the S2FX is that it is a simple arbitrage”, said Paul. “Buy BTC, go 3: 1 to S2FX, impossible to lose.”
Although Paul indicated that he called the bet a joke because he believed “no one would bet.” [Wall] $ 1 million for it or even $ 100,000 “, Neither of you are likely to lose much no matter what happens to the price of Bitcoin.
If the bet is accepted and the S2F model fails, everyone will receive a million dollars. But still, If the pricing model turns out to be correct or even underestimates the future growth of Bitcoin, they will have to pay a lot of money. then the crypto activity would have reached an astronomical value.
“I have no problem losing in this case”, said Wall.