Ex-BitMEX CEO Explains How Bitcoin Will Hit $1 Million By 2030

Bitcoin (BTC) will cost $1 million by 2030, one of the industry’s most prominent experts points out, as countries around the world shun the euro and US dollar.

In his latest blog, published April 27, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto derivatives giant BitMEX, reiterated his prediction of sky-high prices for bitcoin and gold.

Bitcoin, gold, commodities… but not fiat

With sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, a huge turning point in economic and geopolitical politics is looming, Hayes said.

Ex-BitMEX CEO Explains How Bitcoin Will Hit $1 Million By 2030
Ex-BitMEX CEO Explains How Bitcoin Will Hit $1 Million By 2030

As the United States and European Union struggle to reduce dependence on Russian energy and food, the long-term impact will surely hurt them and send Bitcoin to the moon.

The situation is complex. Inflation, already at a 40-year high before the Ukraine conflict, is being exacerbated by Western sanctions while Russia suffers from the West’s freezing of hundreds of billions of dollars in its foreign assets.

For its part, China is monitoring the situation to guard against a copycat movement targeting its assets.

Since the late 1990s, China has been in a virtuous cycle selling cheap goods to the West in exchange for its fiat currency, which is then returned to importers in exchange for government debt. This keeps interest rates low and makes Chinese goods even cheaper.

Broken supply chains, inflation and now the risk of asset collapse are changing the status quo. Rather than change its production model, however, Hayes believes China needs to find a way to reduce its vulnerability to worst-case scenarios.

“It is impossible for China to sell trillions of dollars and euros in assets without destroying the global financial system. It harms both the West and China equally and severely,” he wrote.

“So the path of least destruction for these assets is to stop reinvesting maturing bonds in the western financial system. To the extent China or its proxy state-owned banks can make western stocks and real estate easier without hurting the market, they will.

Hayes identified “storable commodities, gold and bitcoin” as potential outlets for Beijing. While such a situation would be at the extreme end of the spectrum, there should still be a non-zero chance that China will change its stance on issues like bitcoin mining.

1-week chart BTC/USD vs XAU/USD vs SP 500 vs Nsadaq 100. Source: TradingView

“The Fatal Loop” will cause $1 million in bitcoin and $20,000 in gold

What is more surprising, however, is the publication’s perspective on the future of western democracies and, in particular, the European Union.

Unable to be self-sufficient, Hayes argues, Russia’s exclusion will fuel an unstoppable fire that will lead to the crumbling of the European project.

Exporters like Germany will not be able to compete with China, while rampant inflation within the EU is fueling internal anger between north and south.

“The ECB is trapped, the EU is dead and within a decade we will be trading lira, drachma and deutschmarks again,” he predicts.

“If the union breaks up, money will be printed in glorious amounts in a pantheon of different local currencies. Hyperinflation cannot be ruled out. And again, when European savers smell the rocks cooking, they will flee to hard assets like gold and bitcoin. EU breakup = $1 million per bitcoin.”

The million dollars for each bitcoin will also be the result of the “fatal loop” in western financial policy, in particular the Yield Curve Control (YCC), as a tool to avoid bankruptcy.

Gold – still the darling of the store of value narrative – will have hit $20,000 an ounce by the end of the decade.

In conclusion, Hayes called Bitcoiners to arms and warned that the Bitcoin network needs ownership to survive.

“The fatal loop will lead to $1 million per bitcoin and $10,000 to $20,000 per ounce of gold by the end of the decade. Fork economies are set to spring up all over the world. Unlike gold, bitcoin needs to move or the network will collapse.”closes the blog post.

‘Have no grudges against those stubborn flags who refuse to learn even after hearing the good word. As Lord Satoshi said, “Forgive them, for they know not what they are doing”.

As Cointelegraph reported, Hayes is no stranger to bold price predictions, as he hinted at a BTC price “in the millions” in his previous March post.

However, macro analyst Alex Krüger called for rethinking some of his points.

“It will leave many readers scarred with the mentality of a gold beetle who believes the world is doomed forever.”, tweetedwho says that Hayes “fabricates facts and exaggerates things to make his fat-tailed tales seem highly reliable.”

“The Fed is softening again and starting a new bull run. YCC is one of the possibilities that could happen,” he acknowledged in comments.

The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. All investments and operations involve risk, so you should do your own research when making a decision.

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