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Democrats measure forces in Iowa, where several victors could leave

The race to the White House starts without a clear favorite and the background impeachment process

MADRID, 2 Feb. –

With Iowa on stage, the Democratic Party on Monday will kick off a formal exit to a primary process that will leave the presidential candidate for the November elections. The absence of a clear favorite marks on this occasion a caucus from which several winners, both real and moral, could emerge.

Iowa is the state that begins the complex nomination process since 1972 and, in the last four primary schools, the winner of this first test has ended up taking the Democratic nomination at the end of the process. Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Kerry and Al Gore took the cat to the water on this symbolic first date.

Democrats measure forces in Iowa, where several victors could leave
Democrats measure forces in Iowa, where several victors could leave

On this occasion, however, the polls do not agree. Thus, while a recent survey released by 'The New York Times' puts Senator Bernie Sanders with seven points ahead, the newspaper 'USA Today' puts six points ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden and the CBS network draws a close battle to three bands to which Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend (Indiana) also joins.

Senator Elizabeth Warren would not have been able to take advantage of her campaign in this state and is in fourth place in most polls, although from her team they have already suggested that the results obtained in these first stages of the primaries do not have to tilt the balance in one direction or another.

Former Secretary of Housing Julian Castro, who after leaving the electoral race has given his support to Warren, has openly criticized that Iowa has to be the first state to vote, considering that its social composition – mostly white and rural – does not It represents the base of the Democratic Party.

The forecasts are complicated, in addition, if it is taken into account that it is a caucus, a generalized voting system until the beginning of the last century but now only a few states like Iowa or Nevada. These are assemblies that bring together people who are part of the party in question or, in general, very politicized.

In addition, on this occasion the party will disseminate not only the data of the delegates obtained by each of the candidates – there are 41 at stake for the Democrats – but also how the sense of voting evolves from the beginning to the end of the assemblies , which could lead to several of the applicants feeling somehow winners.

Sanders is presented 'a priori' as the preferred option in the first votes and Biden and Buttigieg, with more moderate profiles, could however raise positions as the discussions progress if they drag the support of other minor candidates. Not surprisingly, there are more than a dozen names in liza in the ranks of the Democratic Party.

NEXT STEPS

Overcome this first night, and with the Republican Party already with Donald Trump as a 'de facto' candidate for re-election, the Democrats will see each other's faces again on the 11th in New Hampshire, then continue through Nevada (February 22) and Carolina of the South (February 29).

The first great earthquake will arrive predictably in the 'super Tuesday' on March 3, when there will be votes in more than a dozen jurisdictions. That day, about 40 percent of the delegates who will attend the National Democratic Convention organized in Milwaukee will be put into play in mid-July, where the candidate will be formally proclaimed.

This final proclamation will correspond to the delegates appointed in the long process of primaries – the last votes are scheduled for early June -, without for now there is a clear perspective of what can happen, pending the foreseeable reconfiguration of forces and campaigns as the weeks go by.

Delegates are called to vote at the national convention for the candidate for which they have been elected, with the exception that they have withdrawn from the race. In this case, they should vote in principle for the campaign that their candidate has endorsed – if he has done so – after his departure.

THE SHADOWS OF TRUMP AND CLINTON

Biden, Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg lead the majority of polls conducted at a general level, seemingly impassive to the withdrawal of prominent candidates such as Kamala Harris or the emergence of new names such as the magnate Michael Bloomberg.

Trump, meanwhile, observes the race unable to contain himself, facing options against any of the Democratic candidates in Liza and denouncing “love affairs” to the detriment of Sanders, especially as a result of his being immersed in a controversy for allegedly doubting before Warren the possibilities of a woman to reach the White House.

Under the polls, both Sanders and Biden seem the best positioned to beat Trump in a hypothetical duel in November. However, four years ago, these same polls also predicted an almost certain victory for Clinton, who finally saw how his Republican rival ended up imposing in the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote.

The former secretary of state, who initially chose to stay out of these primaries, has entered the debate fully through a documentary that will spread the Hulu platform and in which, as she herself has subsequently reiterated, has assured that Sanders “nobody likes.”

“Nobody wants to work with him. He has not achieved anything,” Clinton said in a recent interview with 'The Hollywood Reporter' in which he has also criticized the “culture” surrounding his former rival and that would have led to “relentless attacks. “against other Democratic candidates,” especially women. ”

THE SENATE AS A BATTLE SCENARIO

Much of the options of the Democratic Party for November are played these days in the Senate, where a political trial against Trump for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress takes place. The president's alleged pressures on Ukraine to investigate Biden have made headlines in recent weeks and partly overshadowed the primary ones.

Thus, it remains to be seen the effect on the elections of the hard blow caused by the Republican majority of the Senate by preventing this Friday the appearance of witnesses or the admission of new information during the investigations that are taking place in the upper house. This has resulted in the process virtually terminated, except last-minute surprise.

The 'impeachment' has forced part of the candidates to paralyze their campaigns to focus on their activity as senators – this has been the case of Sanders and Warren – and has sneaked into speeches at election events. Trump meanwhile maintains a firm line of defense against what he considers a “fraud,” heir to the “witch hunt” he feels victim of since he arrived at the White House.

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