Cryptocurrency traders speculate on possible outcomes

Bitcoin (BTC) price is approaching the last weekly candle of August. Some traders believe that Bitcoin’s performance over the next two weeks could determine whether the price will drop below $ 10,000 or whether we will see a sustained upward trend.

The close of the weekly candle coincides with the expiration of the CME Bitcoin futures contracts and the Deribit options contracts. It could potentially set a precedent for the month of September, especially if Bitcoin closes above or below its key levels.

Short term, $ 11,800 is often viewed as a key tier for Bitcoin by technical analysts. A longer close near the level would increase the likelihood of a stronger pullback. A close up where the monthly candle stays green could see Bitcoin another raised leg.

Cryptocurrency traders speculate on possible outcomes
Cryptocurrency traders speculate on possible outcomes

Mohit Sorout, Founding partner of Bitazu Capital, said in a Tweet that a run at $ 11,800 would “put sellers to sleep.” Sorout referred to Bitcoin’s daily chart with Bollinger Bands, which shows the area of ​​interest for both sellers and buyers.

Bollinger Bands marked on the Bitcoin daily chart

With only a few days until the end of the month, the Bitcoin futures market is still very cautious. Typically, the number of long contract holders in the futures market exceeds the number of short-term sellers. Show bybt data These long-term contracts account for 53.36% of the market, which shows that traders are cautious as September goes around with three major scenarios within the wild cards.

The short-term bullish scenario for Bitcoin

In order for Bitcoin to maintain its bullish momentum in the short term, Traders say the price of BTC will need to rise primarily above the USD 11,800 support level. In this case, the traders expect another possible move towards USD 12,500. However, some others believe that Bitcoin’s main support trendline is placing the next support area around $ 10,900.. Therefore, if BTC stayed above the $ 10,900-11,500 range, it would maintain its short-term bullish scenario.

A cryptocurrency trader known as “John Wick” believes investors are not considering the longer maturities The weekly chart, using the low of $ 3,600 bitcoin in March and the local low of $ 9,130 ​​in July as basis points, shows a trend line of support. As long as the trend line does not break sharply in the short term, the trader pointed to a Tweet that this could be an optimistic market structure.

Weekly Bitcoin Chart

The cryptocurrency analyst, Nunya Bizniz proposed a similar scenario over a longer period of time. If the current monthly candle structure follows the previous formations, the analyst said there is a chance this will mark the beginning of a new bull run. This would indicate that the price of Bitcoin might rise steadily over the next 6 or 12 months. tweet::

“BTC month: VWAP has tied to previous cycle highs. A successful retest of the AVWAP has led to bull markets. Does the current month meet the new test and does it result in a bull run (this)? Note: gray vertical line = halving “.

However, one variable in expectations of a run similar to 2017 is that the second halving occurred in mid-2016. If a similar trend emerges, the odds that Bitcoin will see a proper run by the end of 2021 are higher than it was this winter.

The cautious bearish fall of BTC

Short term, Traders showed signs of caution after Bitcoin fell below $ 11,500. A dealer known as “Mayne” He said Bitcoin’s initial drop to $ 11,400 is not the trend the bulls want to see. Since then, Bitcoin has consistently seen a lower peak pattern that typically shows a slowdown in momentum. Mayne tweeted: “Price with a false breakout high and now falling. The last two bullish moves clearly look like new bearish tests. When it comes to sales, he expects sales to pick up soon. The cops have to get in and get $ 11,700 back. “

Bitcoin's daily chart with key levels

A lower spike refers to a spike in price at a price that is below the previous high. Bitcoin’s daily candle closed at $ 11,748 on August 24, while the next three daily candles closed below $ 11,500, forming a lower peak pattern. Bitcoin would have to break above $ 11,800 to break the pattern of a lower peak, making it a short-term critical level.

The slowdown in Bitcoin’s momentum from its peak in mid-August coincides with the decline in address activity. Brian Kelly CNBC has been using daily address activity on the Bitcoin blockchain as an important basic metric for some time. Address activity on the Bitcoin network has slowed significantly since mid-May. Santiment’s data shows it has decreased by almost half, which illustrates this Reduced address activity is a warning sign that network activity is falling. The enterprise tweeted:: “The -3.7% price was most likely due to the -19.3% decrease in this metric from its high of 1.13 million active addresses on August 6th.”

The meeting of lower spikes on the daily chart, the slowdown in fundamentals, and Bitcoin consolidating below $ 11,800 they seem to make the market more cautious.

Price stagnation

As an alternative scenario Some investors believe that Bitcoin could see months of low volatility before the next big price move occurs. Dan Tepiero, Co-Founder of 10T Holdings, He said that each price cycle in the past has taken about 800 and 1,100 days to complete. Bitcoin is currently less than 400 days in the current cycle, which suggests that BTC could be on the sidelines for the next 3 to 12 months.

Bitcoin price cycles and their length

If the bitcoin price stagnates, some foresee an extended altcoin season. Bitcoin’s dominance index will be an issue for altcoins for the foreseeable future as it approaches key levels of tech support. But, In the past, altcoins have had success during Bitcoin’s consolidation phases.

Tepiero urges everyone to be patient with Bitcoin. tweet:: “Each upward cycle is longer and less extreme as the dollar’s absolute monetary value increases. It may take another 6 or 12 months for the price to skyrocket. An excessively high price shouldn’t matter. Hodlers are happy. ” .

Traders will remain mixed as Bitcoin enters September, which has historically been a slow month. In previous years, BTC has often seen an uptrend in August, followed by consolidation through November. BTC’s tendency to stagnate in the final quarter of the year is reflected in the indecision of the futures market.

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