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Cryptocurrency traders explain where Bitcoin’s price can go after the fifth test at the $ 10,000 mark in 11 days

May 20, 2020

The Bitcoin (BTC) price has been tested a total of five times at $ 10,000 in the last 11 days. Due to variable prospects, price movements can be viewed as an upward or downward trend. The five-fold key psychological level test of $ 10,000 can be analyzed in two ways: The resistance level of $ 10,000 weakens with each test, or the resistance is so strong that buyers can no longer get away from it.

Many of the leading cryptocurrency traders believe that the $ 9,000 zone is a starting point for another recovery that has expanded to the $ 14,000-15,000 resistance area and is targeting $ 20,000 in the medium term. Others anticipate a significant drop in the region from $ 7,000 to $ 8,000 before Bitcoin’s price can reach $ 14,000 and then try to break the record.

The short-term bullish scenario for Bitcoin

Traders who expect Bitcoin price to rebound from the resistance level of $ 10,000 as support see a rally to key levels above that price. They predict that the multi-peak resistance area will weaken to $ 9,800 to $ 9,900.

Cryptocurrency traders explain where Bitcoin’s price can go after the fifth test at the $ 10,000 mark in 11 days
Cryptocurrency traders explain where Bitcoin’s price can go after the fifth test at the $ 10,000 mark in 11 days

Bitcoin tests the resistance range from $ 9,900 to $ 10,000 five times in 11 days

Bitcoin tests the resistance range from $ 9,900 to $ 10,000 five times in 11 days. Source: trade view

Traders continue to discuss whether the current Bitcoin price trend is the beginning of an upward trend after the long-awaited block reward halving on May 11. Basically, halving the block reward for the price of Bitcoin is a highly optimistic event, as it directly affects the supply of BTC, as it halves the amount of Bitcoin mined and lowers the rate at which you produce new BTCs and then how a lot is sold in the market.

Historical, The halving in 2012 and 2016 led to a price increase of at least 2,500%. Therefore, BTC’s bullish performance is that halving will push Bitcoin’s price up in both the short and long term.

Related: According to Cointelegraph Research, Bitcoin demand increases by half

According to cryptocurrency researcher Philip Swift, an indicator called the 2-year moving average multiplier shows that Bitcoin peaked at $ 3,600 and broke a multi-year trend line of $ 5,800. At the macro level and in a longer-term scenario Swift found the indicator indicates that the next sensible target for BTC is the all-time high of $ 20,000. Fast tweeted::

“Bitcoin has been super bullish since it exploded in MA over 2 years ago. We had the chance to accumulate before Bitcoin’s hedge fund rates were enthusiastic. The next stop is now the 2yrMA x5 [más de 20.000 dólares]””

Bitcoin price with 2-year MA multiplier

The price of Bitcoin with the 2-year MA multiplier. Source: Philip Swift

Bitcoin trader Nunya Bizniz said the same Bitcoin shows a “golden cross” in a high time frame, which has only happened seven times in Bitcoin’s history. The last golden cross was raised when BTC hovered around $ 5,000 in early 2019 as it recovered from a decline to $ 3,150. Bizniz tweeted::

“BTC Golden Cross (GC): GC = 50dma moves over 200dma. There were 6 occurrences. Only one of these occurred while the 200MA was increasing. A 7th GC is about to occur with a slight upward gradient into the 200MA.” .

A gold cross usually indicates the beginning of an extended upward trend. However, The risk is that Bitcoin’s price may drop below this cross when it occurs, making it a death cross with a bearish structure.

The seventh golden cross in Bitcoin's history is formed

The seventh golden cross in Bitcoin’s history is formed. Source: Nunya Bizniz

To keep most of Bitcoin’s macro-bullish trends intact, BTC must remain above $ 9,000 for next week and retest the $ 10,000 resistance level. The positive sentiment among professional traders also coincides with the converging divergence of the moving average (MACD), indicating a further rise in a weekly Bitcoin price chart.

Bitcoin weekly price chart with MACD

Bitcoin weekly price chart with MACD. Source: Satoshi pinball machine

With Bitcoin over $ 9,000, the cryptocurrency investor known as “Light” noted that sentiment among top traders is generally positive about Bitcoin. tweet::

“”I have not yet found a single competent trader / investor who is currently pessimistic about Bitcoin. And the long-term are optimistic with conviction. In retrospect, it will either seem incredibly obvious, or it turns out that we’ve all come a long way“”

However, when the majority of the market is bullish, bitcoin is often prone to correction before another bullish trend. This is the risk of a deep setback that other highly respected traders will see in the short term.

The bearish scenario for Bitcoin in the coming weeks

If the optimistic predictions about Bitcoin revolve around the positive effect that halving can have on the price of BTC, negative projections are also mainly about halving. In the previous two halving, the Bitcoin price fell after the halving, and the actual upward trend didn’t start until 8-12 weeks after the halving.

Bitcoin’s tendency to fall after halving and failing to break the $ 10,000 resistance level after five failed attempts has fueled most bearish predictions for BTC. The Bitcoin trader known as TraderXO said in a Tweet as BTC’s price is likely to drop below $ 9,000 in the near future, with the region being the lowest support area at $ 8,000.

Bitcoin price range based on price history since early May

Bitcoin’s price range is based on price developments since the beginning of May. Source: TraderXO

According to market data Around 72% of the Bitcoin futures market is long. This means that the vast majority of traders expect Bitcoin prices to rise. While this is usually positive information, it also opens up the possibility of a long press.

BitMEX, Bitfinex and Binance Futures have active long positions of around USD 716 million. In contrast, There are only $ 273 million in short positions in the market. The large discrepancy between lengths and shorts reduces the likelihood of a short squeeze and increases the likelihood of a deep recoil.

Variables outside the price movement

Bitcoin’s fundamentals such as chain activity, liquidity and sentiment declined slightly after halving. Liesl Eichholz, head of Glassnode’s growth strategy, wrote:

“Bitcoin chain fundamentals declined slightly at week 20. The Glassnode Network Index (BNE) fell 1 point this week, bringing the overall valuation of the Bitcoin ecosystem to 73 points. This decrease was mainly due to the following the index “Network Health”, which decreased by 8 points “.

The slight decline in liquidity and general sentiment was mainly due to a decline in interest in Bitcoin before and after the halving. Before the event The number of transactions in the Bitcoin blockchain network and activities on different platforms increased.

Given the hype surrounding the halving, Eichholz emphasized that the slight decline in fundamental data is not necessarily a negative indicator. However, A positive factor is the increase in the number of addresses with more than 0.1 BTC or around $ 970.

Related: Halving Bitcoin was not the apocalyptic event that some feared in the crypto world

Bitcoin has the image of a currency that is largely owned by whales – that is, by individual investors who own a large part of the range of assets. However, Data shows that the distribution of Bitcoin offer has improved, with more people who own BTC. Rafael Schultze-Kraft, a glass node researcher, tweeted::

“”There are now over 3 million # Bitcoin addresses with at least 0.1 BTC (current value: USD 975). That is 14% more addresses than a year ago today“”

External factors such as chain data and fundamental data show that there are no major events that could have a significant impact on the price of BTC in the short term. This leaves the current BTC price movements along with macro trend projections as the two factors that are likely to affect the BTC price in the coming weeks.

For bassists or sellers, Bitcoin’s price drop below $ 9,000 to avoid a gold cross in the $ 9,000 region and an optimistic breakout on the weekly chart would indicate a resumption of a downward trend.

For bulls or buyers, If Bitcoin’s price remains above the $ 9,500 to $ 9,600 range, this would indicate that despite strong opposition from overhead costs, there is sufficient demand in the spot, futures, options and institutions markets to sustain Bitcoin’s upward trend.