Gustavo Cruz, a scientist at UNAM, designed a mathematical model to determine the speed of infections.
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UNAM scientist Gustavo Cruz collaborated in the design of a mathematical model that determines the speed of the spread of coronavirus COVID19 and determine the date on which cases will begin to occur in people who have not had contact with patients who have traveled to the Foreign.
The member of the Institute for Research in Applied Mathematics and Systems ( IIMAS ) highlighted that although there are already cases of COVID19 in Mexico, the number
of contagions will rise exponentially between March 20 and 30.
“The basis of this work is a classic 1927 model devised by Scottish physicians WO Kermack and AG McKendrick, which employs a system of differential equations to detail how an infectious outbreak arises, how it grows, when it reaches its maximum and how it then declines, all from two parameters: one biological and the other social. In this case, we have complemented these differential equations with classical diffusion to form what is known as a reaction-diffusion system, ”says the scientist on the UNAM Global page.
Cruz had already developed a similar mathematical model in the spring of 2009 when influenza type A (H1N1) emerged. The specialist explained that for each confirmed case it is necessary to calculate how many could become infected. This factor is known as the basic reproductive number, or R0, and it helps to understand how fast an infection spreads.
“One of the aspects to consider is that we live in an interconnected world in which it is feasible to travel from one continent to another in hours, so we must not ignore that Mexico City, in addition to being a densely populated city, is also an important economic exchange zone, which favors the contact between people and, therefore, increases the probability of contagion ”, warns the member of the IIMAS.