Bitcoin’s price on BitMEX reached $ 10,463, slightly below the previous high in June. However, two indicators point to a cooling of the BTC: the TD9 and the entrances to the stock exchanges.
The Bitcoin price tests an important level of resistance. Source: Raoul buddy
TD9 is a trend reversal indicator that is part of the sequential TD system. As usual, Indicates whether a run or correction has been extended too long.
In the same way, Entries for exchange, especially between whales, often indicate that the running run may be crowded.
Is Bitcoin’s ongoing run too long?
A TD9 sell signal is essentially triggered when the Bitcoin price rises for nine consecutive days without a relevant pullback. If nine candles remain above the end of the previous four candles, the TD9 indicator lights up.
Since July 19, the price of Bitcoin has risen from $ 9,219 to $ 10,463. The four candlesticks before the last nine daily candlesticks closed at $ 9,150 and formed a TD9 indicator.
The TD9 itself may not be reliable. The basis or technical aspects of an asset are not taken into account. However, if BTC runs occur nine days in a row and coincide with other factors, this could indicate a withdrawal.
In addition to TD9, analysts examine inputs for BTC exchanges. According to the CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young-Ju, The entries for exchanges rose sharply in the last Bitcoin run. He suggested that some whales could be careful. He said::
“The BTC price rose too quickly. It seems that other whales think so too. “
Entries on Bitcoin exchanges increase with rising BTC prices. Source: CryptoQuant
The financing rates for permanent futures contracts on important exchanges such as BitMEX and Binance Futures are also increasing.
In contrast to conventional futures contracts, perpetual futures contracts have no expiry date. Such as, The exchanges use a mechanism known as financing to motivate users who bet against the majority of the market.
For example, if the Bitcoin futures market has more than onel In the long term, the financing rate would increase by 60% and motivate the owners in the short term.
Financing rates in BitMEX and Binance Futures are currently 0.072% and 0.054%, respectively. In general, the financing rate for perpetual BTC contracts is around 0.01%. This suggests that most of the market is concentrated over the long term, which could result in BTC being under constant pressure.
An alternative scenario
Some dealers and technical analysts now believe that Bitcoin can continue to recover without any significant setbacks.
Zoran Kole, A cryptocurrency trader said he hoped Bitcoin is expected to stabilize in the support range between $ 10,000 and $ 10,100 before continuing its upward trend. Depending on the market structure, the trader explained that the price of BTC could rise to USD 11,500. He wrote::
“Long term consider the high retest area in the DBS zones. An invalidation below the weekly opening sweep at $ 9900. I would aim for the highest weekly cumulative value between 11.5 and 11.6.
Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision Group said the actual Bitcoin run will start when BTC exceeds $ 10,500. Pal says that correcting before reaching this important level of resistance creates uncertainty. But he hopes the momentum will continue. He said::
“The actual game in Bitcoin starts over $ 10,500. Maybe it will be corrected first, maybe not, but I’m worried. “
Simon Peters, Cryptoasset analyst on the global investment platform, eToro, He shared some comments and said:
“Bitcoin’s network metrics also look pretty good. Glassnode’s reserve risk metric … currently indicates an attractive level of risk and reward, indicating that trust is high and price is low.”
While several fundamental indicators point to a slight decline in the short term, some traders believe that BTC’s momentum is too strong to make a sharp correction.