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In less than three weeks is the deadline for that final separation of the United Kingdom from the European Union. Although the split was officially announced on January 31, 2020, it was agreed that the remainder of the year would be a transition period to spell out details on how their relationship will look after Brexitespecially in commercial matters. After eleven months of unsuccessful talks, however, both parties decided to extend the negotiations to avoid the “divorce” being finalized without an agreement.
The British Prime Minister said in a joint statement Boris Johnsonand the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyenannounced that they have directed their teams meeting in Brussels to continue talks.
“Despite the exhaustion after almost a year of negotiations and despite the fact that the deadlines were repeatedly broken, we consider it responsible at this point to go a little further.”said both officials.
“As a result, we have instructed our negotiators to continue the talks and see if an agreement is possible in this final phase.”they added.
So he made it known von der Leyen via Twitter, in what he described “A helpful and constructive call”.
We had a useful phone call with @ BorJJohnson this morning.
We agreed that the talks will continue
– Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) December 13, 2020
In an interview for the BBC, Johnson He displayed a mixture of pessimism and self-confidence. “The way things are We are still a long way off on some important issues (…) Where there is life there is hope. We’ll keep talking to see what we can do. “commented the guide.
However, he repeated this “Most likely now” was a split without an agreement and that they must prepare to sever relations with the European Union “under the terms of the World Trade Organization”.
The UK officially left the EU on January 31, and from March London and Brussels began negotiating a trade agreement that should come into force on January 1, 2021.
The “Key problems” the Johnson mentioned are mainly:
- The level playing field or “level playing field” (a level playing field), which covers topics such as standardized rules for work, the environment and social benefits, as well as competition rules for British companies entering the European market.
- Fishing rights, as the UK wants to participate in the European fishing market, but is reluctant to allow the bloc countries to fish in its waters.
- L.Governance of the agreementthat is, which institutions mediate or resolve conflicts and which criteria are used.
What if a final deal on Brexit is not reached?
If the parties fail to reach a resolution, it will be World Trade Organization (WTO) who regulates the relationship between the two. That would mean new tariffs, regulatory controls and a lot of paperwork, as well as losing access to 450 million consumers.
The “no agreement” would be more damaging to Britainbecause the EU is their largest trading partner. The UK Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) estimates that a no-deal Brexit would mean a Reduce UK economic output by 2% by 2021that’s about £ 40,000 million ($ 53,000 million). Furthermore, would put more than 300,000 people out of work for the second half of next year.
Even if an agreement is reached, the UK’s outlook remains pessimistic. According to OBR, their new business relationship is expected to result in long-term production downtime of around 4% compared to what would happen if they stayed in the European Union.
See also: Germany imposes strict Christmas quarantine to stop the escalation of COVID-19
With or without agreements, January 1, 2021 it will bring enormous changes for all countries involved and for the world economy.
Exporters and importers will face customs declarations, physical checks and other obstacles. UK authorities admit that a chaotic departure is likely to lead to congestion in UK ports, temporary product defects and price increases. This could lead to nervousness in the world markets and new financial turbulence.
In addition, EU citizens without a visa can no longer live and work in the UK, although the more than 3 million already existing will not be affected. In the meantime, the British will no longer be able to work or move freely in the European Union.