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Bitcoin’s price will reach $ 12,000 or $ 8,000. And later? BTC dealers discuss top statistics

June 11, 2020

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is still struggling to surpass $ 10,000 after three failed attempts over a 36-day period. Traders remain confused as macro indicators point to variable trends.

Many traders believe that Bitcoin’s price is ready for a recovery above the multi-year resistance level of $ 10,500 Confirmation of the end of a two-year price cycle and the start of a new recovery. Others anticipate that eBitcoin’s price will drop to $ 6,000 to $ 7,000 short term given the three consecutive rejections of the same range between $ 10,000 and $ 10,500 over a month.

Historical data shows that decreasing volatility and falling volume indicate that a large Bitcoin price movement is likely in the near future. For example, the price of Bitcoin in early September 2019 was around $ 10,500 to $ 10,800. At that time, the volume of futures and spot markets declined significantly compared to the previous two weeks. In late October, after a month of consolidation, Bitcoin’s price dropped from $ 10,800 to $ 7,300. a drop of 32% in two months after weeks of low volatility.

The short-term bullish scenario

Bitcoin’s price will reach $ 12,000 or $ 8,000. And later? BTC dealers discuss top statisticsBitcoin’s price will reach $ 12,000 or $ 8,000. And later? BTC dealers discuss top statistics

Traders generally expect a short-term increase in Bitcoin for three main reasons: a convincing technical structure, an increase in the number of long-term forks and a Fast growing hash rate. According to Michael van de Poppe, a full-time Amsterdam dealer, Bitcoin’s short-term trend is bullishAs long as the price stays up $ 9,100.

The price of Bitcoin can reach USD 12,000 in the short term. Source: Michael van de Poppe

Bitcoin’s price could reach USD 12,000 in the short term. Source: Michael van de Poppe

The reach of Bitcoin has strongly supported $ 9,100 to $ 9,300 since May. If the price is $ 9,100 and again exceeds $ 10,500, van de Poppe emphasized that $ 12,000 is likely to be the next level. Said: “If we break $ 10,000, the next level is $ 10,500. If we break $ 10,500, the next level is $ 11,500-12,000. Crucial level to maintain; $ 9,100-9,300 “.

Likewise cryptocurrency trader Nunya Bizniz said yes Earlier this month the The following levels are the most important for BTC see a recovery extended:

  1. $ 10,000: Resistance and Psychological Barrier;
  2. $ 10,500: first highest maximum, change in market structure;
  3. $ 11,600: A monthly close of 50% Fibonacci retracement has exceeded an important technical level in the last three cycles. and
  4. $ 14,000: A closing price above a historic monthly high suggests a record attempt at BTC.

Mohit Sorout, founding partner of Bitazu Capital, he showed as The Bitcoin price should come from the two-year cycle within seven days if you do not notice a strong withdrawal during this period.

Bitcoin shortly before the outbreak. Source: Mohit Sorout

Bitcoin price just before the explosion. Source: Mohit Sorout

Sorout also noted that Bitcoin’s sharp rally was $ 9,440 than the price at which it opened in June. it is strong evidence of buying demand. June 7th Bitcoin’s price dropped to $ 9,360 under BitMEX. He saw an immediate recovery, Reach $ 10,160 on June 10. The investor explained: “This shows the interest of buyers. Sellers simply don’t have what it takes to cut prices. “

Evidence of buying demand for Bitcoin. Source: Mohit Sorout

Evidence of Bitcoin purchase demand. Source: Mohit Sorout

The convincing technical structure of Bitcoin is supported by a sudden increase in the hash rate and an increase in the so-called “Hodler”. Woobull data, a market data platform operated by cryptocurrency investor Willy Woo, show that Investors are accumulating more and more BTC at current prices.

Bitcoin HODL waves. Source: Woobull

Bitcoin HODL waves. Source: Woobull

When the waves that overlap the Bitcoin price trend in the Bitcoin HODL wave chart increase, this indicates More and more investors are buying BTC without sales plans short term.

Earlier bull markets were triggered by an increase in HODL waves, which was generally the case is a very positive sign that investors feel more comfortable with the short and medium term trend of Bitcoin. Woo explained:

“The upper contours represent the supply (old coins that have not moved), while the lower contours represent the new demand (coins that have changed recently). The composite view clearly shows every bullish cycle that creates new demand. “

The optimistic trend of long-term investors corresponds to the growing trust of miners that it’s likely that Bitcoin’s price will rise towards the end of 2020. After a second difficulty adjustment in the last quarter, the hash rate of the Bitcoin blockchain network rose dramatically. The increased hash rate indicates that miners are anticipating this The BTC price will recover above $ 10,500 in the following months.

Bitcoin hash rate and level of difficulty. Source: Coinmetrics

Bitcoin hash rate and level of difficulty table. Source: Coinmetrics

The confluence of a strong technical structure for an upward trend and positive fundamentals such as increasing hash rate and HodlerYes, they increase the likelihood of a short-term rally.

The bearish scenario for Bitcoin in the short term

The declining scenario for Bitcoin’s short-term price is mainly turning Bitcoin rejection at the $ 10,000 level. Bitcoin’s price tends to exceed a level of resistance or support in the third test. If not, it is prone to a strong withdrawal.

Since May, Bitcoin’s price has attempted a total of three times to break out of the $ 10,500 resistance level. However, each attempt was answered with a quick sale, suggesting that there is significant selling pressure in the $ 10,000 to $ 10,500 range.

Coincidentally, it is the third time in a wider timeframe that Bitcoin’s price dropped $ 10,500. with previous events in October 2019 and February that created a possible triple superior formation.

Triple top formation in progress. Source: trade view

Triple superior work in progress. Source: trade view

A drop below $ 9,000 would indicate a collapse in the family’s level of resistance. Accepted The price fell to $ 6,400 and $ 3,600 in October 2019 and February, respectively. Bears are forecasting a drop to $ 6,000.

Dealer Nunya Bizniz discovered this Bollinger’s bandwidth display Widely shows a local top for Bitcoin that pretty much highlights the previous peaks. they they said: “The peaks in the Bollinger Wide Band followed the slope along the orange trend line. In addition, these peaks in the BBW were also perfectly matched to the price peaks. Will that happen again?

Bollinger bandwidth display on Bitcoin. Source: Nunya Bizniz

Bollinger bandwidth display in Bitcoin. Source: Nunya Bizniz

Other variables that can affect Bitcoin in the third quarter

Dow Jones Industrial Average began abruptly correcting the price for the first time in over a month after the United States Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting. Despite positive developments such as falling unemployment claims and the Fed’s intention to keep interest rates low, Investors become more cautious as retail fears of losing increase, or FOMO.

Market uncertainty and key hedge fund forecasts of a recession in the equity markets could slow investors’ appetite for riskier assets like individual stocks and bitcoin. Pre-trading data shows that Dow Jones fell 900 points on June 11. Delete eight-day profits in a single non-business trading session.

However, a positive variable is the results of Fidelity Investments, which has approximately $ 2.46 trillion in assets under management. In a survey, Fidelity found that almost a third of the U.S. institutions invested in digital assets such as Bitcoin or Ether (ETH). Yes The increase in institutional acceptance offsets the decrease in spot and futures volume. There is a possibility that Bitcoin will experience an institutional recovery for the first time in history.

The general mood around Bitcoin remains cautiously optimistic. Most traders appear to be aware of Bitcoin consolidation in an important resistance area Large investors remain unchanged or initially accumulate their long-term holdings. It is possible that the number of Hodler has increased in the past week 2.7%, According to Glassnode data, investors expect low volatility in the third quarter of 2020.