The price of Bitcoin at the time of writing dropped almost ten percentage points to settle again with $ 8,700 psychological support for the first time in 11 days, A decline that many analysts had predicted before the next BTC cut in half.
If there are less than two days left and 287 blocks are left, so the bitcoin miners’ reward is reduced to 50%, The BTCUSD pair’s daily chart shows a retreat that is not yet known exactly how long it will last.
According to the Cointelegraph price indicator Bitcoin is priced at $ 8,711 with a retracement of -11.60% in the last 24 hours. although his monthly ROI of almost 20 percent is still in the green.
The rest of the market board is portrayed exactly like Bitcoin due to its high dependencywith a big red tide, with most of the major altcoins in the top ten crypto market showing double-digit losses, with BCH leading the losses by more than 13 percent.
A large and experienced cryptocurrency trader published a weekly chart of the BTCUSD pair on Bitfinex, in which he pointed it out The market leading cryptocurrency could once again reach a level of $ 5,200 if it fails to break its resistances above 10,000 and break the key support at $ 7,748.
At the time of the chart’s release, the Bitcoin price was $ 9,870, and its technical analysis considers two key scenarios to help understand the future behavior of the BTC price.
The first scenario was classified as bullish and set at the level of the $ 10,650 as a strong resistance to Bitcoin during this period. As can be seen in the graph above, until recently the $ 10,185 level was the key resistance to break out of a good volume and reach the next higher goal in the middle of a bull rally.
After the analysis, The USD 10,650 resistance is strong after 875 days of strong resistance. Every closing candle in this diagram above this level catapults Bitcoin to new higher levels.
However in the past few hours with the liquidation of more than $ 1.22 trillion Bitcoin in the major cryptocurrency exchanges with Huobi Exchange at the forefront, The general market crash was something that was expected sooner or later.
Only in the last hour More than 65,000 people have resolved their ten million dollar positions only on BitMex Exchange.
The main causes of this drop in Bitcoin prices are strong bearish divergence on the chart and strong resistance from the 10 km range that from a psychological point of view it is a very strong position that has put people on sale to avoid breaking above that level due to the lack of volume on the main exchanges due to the massive sell orders to achieve this.
Also a few hours from the big event, It is possible that BTC will drop after the next halving and that the old coins will take off with the long-awaited season ‘ALT Season ‘.
According to current events, the second scenario of the weekly chart in Bitfinex for the BTCUSD pair is fulfilled. Now we are talking about the support level, i.e. given the rejection of the Bitcoin price from the strong resistance level above 10,000, then the negative side for the scenario Hold bull It just seems to be happening.
With the first support for Bitcoin at $ 7,748, If the decline deepens due to the lack of volume to regain the level and this important support falls apart, we can see that BTC could perfectly reach levels below 6,000So the expectation that the price of Bitcoin would be at a strong support level of $ 4,800 to $ 5,200 would not be far-fetched if the important support level mentioned above fell.
To understand the previous two scenarios, exceeding the moving averages and the 50-period moving averages is even more important. If EMA exceeds 50 MA upwards, the scenario would be completely bullish and we can see a BTC price increase of up to 300% -500%.
The reverse case, ie a crossing from EMA 50 to 50 MA downwards, could then also trigger the declining scenario a loss of the BTC price level of up to 70% -80%. At the moment the price has collapsed and everything seems to indicate that the worst-case scenario exists See Bitcoin again at the 5k levels after the next halving.
However, if the sales volume is not low enough, we will likely become a ‘Outbreak ‘ it could trigger a bullish rally towards new all-time levels ATH.
Bitcoin in the short term
On the 1H chart for the BTCUSD pair on Coinbase, there is a potentially descending triangle of Bitcoin towards the $ 8,600 zone. The cheap value of BTC was historically fairly volatile with the halving event.
His support is evident in the current trading area. If it manages to stabilize at this level after halving, it could signal the start of a new upward cycle above 10,000, as projected by its upward line, which is still maintained despite the sharp drop of more than a thousand points in the past few hours .
If the $ 8,600 support fails, we will likely cut the price of Bitcoin in the next 24 hours And then the bearish spirit returns to the current cryptocurrency market.
For now According to Skew, Bitcoin’s performance so far in the second quarter of 2020 is over + 50%, especially when we are in the middle of the period in question. Let us remember the historically best BTC price developments that were achieved at this point in the year.