Bitcoin (BTC) options’ weekly expiration this Friday currently has an open interest of $ 330 million. Given the recent scramble for support at $ 32,000, this event is important evidence of the bulls’ willingness to show reversal signals.
On July 21, Alameda Research announced that the company had bought bitcoins under $ 30,000, and Sam Trabucco, the company’s quant trader, mentioned the narrative for BTC could become bullish due to fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD ). China’s BTC Mining Ban, Garyscale’s GBTC Unlock, and Stock Market Rally.
The graph above shows that the current downtrend channel started three weeks ago could invalidate if price breaks the resistance at USD 32,200. The move appears to have been triggered by the statement by Elon Musk that his company SpaceX also has Bitcoin.
During the July 21 meeting with Cathie Wood and Jack Dorsey, Musk said that despite the rumors, he completely opposed recent speculation that Tesla had sold part of its Bitcoin position.
Elon Musk clarifies that Tesla did not sell Bitcoin after triggering the sell-off https://t.co/jPxK5jBm3m pic.twitter.com/4uA5xB8OwB
– New York Post (@nypost) May 17, 2021
Elon Musk clarifies that Tesla did not sell any bitcoins after a sell-off
Notably, the rumors were only supported because Musk was giving mixed signals on social media. What’s more Tesla had previously sold 10% of its holdings in Bitcoin in the previous month.
$ 32,000 support is critical to the cops
The options expiration on Friday could be the first test of strength in this recent rebound. If the bulls are targeting $ 32,000 as the support level, there is no better way than to inflict as much damage as possible on bear-neutral put options.
The first signal that bears have tried to dominate is the put-to-call ratio. The value of 0.81 reflects less neutral to bullish call options for the July 23 expiration date.
However, the bears may have been drawn because 96% of the put options used exercise prices of $ 32,000 or less. If Bitcoin manages to stay above this level on Friday at 8:00 a.m. UTC, only 8 million put options will participate in the expiry.
On the other hand, there are call options ranging from $ 29 million up to the strike price of $ 32,000. That $ 21 million difference favors the cops. Though small, it’s the complete opposite of a sub-$ 32,000 term.
If the $ 32,000 doesn’t hold, the bears have a $ 9 million advantage as only 9% of the call options were placed at $ 31,000 or less.
None of the results are of extreme importance, but the profits could be used towards the next expiration of the largest monthly options on July 30th. This is the main reason the bulls have to hold their ground to maintain the current momentum.
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