Bitcoin (BTC) needs to turn lower before it hits a macro bottom, according to one of the most accurate indicators on the market.
Data from sources like on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-score is almost, but not quite, signaling a possible trend reversal.
MVRV Z-Score nears potential macro low
Amid the ongoing debate over whether or when BTC/USD will scale above its current lows of $17,600, new numbers suggest the market has yet to head slightly lower.
What mention, that Filbfilb, co-founder of the Decentrader trading team, the MVRV-Z-Score is now in its classic green zone, but not yet at the point that has accompanied price bottoms in the past.
The MVRV-Z-Score measures how high or low the spot price of bitcoin is relative to the so-called “fair price”.
It uses market cap and realized price data along with standard deviation to create one of the most efficient bitcoin high and low prediction tools.
MVRV-Z has hit every upper and lower frame of the BTC/USD pair throughout its history, with two-week accuracy, notes data resource LookIntoBitcoin.
The metric has dipped below its green zone only a couple of times, most recently in March 2020, but further downward pressure would see it happen again.
“This chart is *the only one* for me,” Filbfilb commented on the recent readings.
“Usually we’ve hit rock bottom at MC
A floor at $16,000 is gaining relevance
A price of $15,600 would match many of the predictions of where Bitcoin will set a price floor.
In an update to its Twitter followers over the weekend, the popular CryptoBullet account listed this area as one of several key support zones to watch.
$16,000, if confirmed, also marks the average deviation from Bitcoin’s 50-month moving average.
Some very important #BTC Levels:
16k – Average deviation from MA50 (-25%)
14k – 2019 Echo Bubble Top
12.2k – Liquidation in Celsius
10.7k – Important Horizontal Plane https://t.co/hEcnj8wsak pic.twitter.com/1Xke0F7WSe
— CryptoBullet (@CryptoBullet1) July 2, 2022
Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is already at its peak lowest levelanother indication of the oversold nature of a market that is now below its previous halving cycle high of nearly $20,000.
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