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Bitcoin had not done this since 2015, just before its 10,000% rally

May 3, 2020

Bitcoin price (BTC), the highest ranked cryptocurrency, is currently near the $ 9,000, after the impressive 20% rise what presents in one day from last week. Since the halving will be less than two weeks away, taking a long position in Bitcoin might seem crazy as the next explosive move takes place.

However, there is a graphic that indicates that we may have reached the upper limit, and I will start with this today.

According to Coinmarketcap, Bitcoin’s market cap is currently $ 162,407,752,672.

Bitcoin had not done this since 2015, just before its 10,000% rallyBitcoin had not done this since 2015, just before its 10,000% rally

Daily performance of the crypto market. Source: Coin360.com

If in doubt, expand your vision

BTC / USD pair daily chart. Source: TradingView

In last week’s review, I shared two possible upstreams, one of which was invalid and the other was at stake. This week I want to see the possibility that we weren’t on any of the channels and the fact that We could still be on the downtrend since pumping in June 2019 when it hit nearly $ 14,000.

The upper trend line was validated by three taps. However The bottom trend line of this channel puts the immediate decline at just $ 3,000 and the moving average is $ 6,300. I don’t expect Bitcoin to hit those numbers again, but it would be stupid not to be prepared for it.

Fibonacci suggests what a breakup could bring

BTC / USD pair daily chart. Source: TradingView

The All-time high Fibonacci retracement level of $ 20,000 for Bitcoin we show that a pause today could bring us back to much higher values ​​than expected.

The critical level is $ 9,550 concentrate. It represents both the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382 and the top of the channel. If you claim this level, Bitcoin could skyrocket On the way to the 0.5 Fibonacci, which equates to $ 11,500, the 0.618 Fibonacci are realistically in sight at $ 13,500.

Well, that’s all well and good, but “rising numbers” don’t always happen, and one of those indicators you can rely on to confirm the direction we’re moving based on the current momentum the monthly indicator of convergence and divergence of the moving average or MACD.

Monthly MACD analysis

Monthly MACD chart for the BTC / USD pair. Source: TradingView

I highlighted that last week important that the convergence indicator for moving average divergence (MACD) has in the price of bitcoin when it goes up in the weekly timeframe.

However With the bullish closing of the monthly candle comes a new scenario for the monthly MACD. The map above shows the monthly bullish and bearish MACD crossovers with the weekly bullish MACD crossovers highlighted with dotted lines: green for the bullish crossovers that later showed a big rally and red dotted lines for the wrong crosses bullish.

The reason for this card is Check to see if there are any patterns that match the weekly upward trend of 2017 and saw an increase of 2,000%.. However, it is also useful to see whether the upper time frame perspective shows contradictory impulses that could indicate that a shock will soon occur.

If you go from left to right in the graph, you can see it in March 2017 When the weekly MACD went higher, the monthly MACD was already on a bullish cross since 2015.

Hence in the Weekly bullish crossover point, both MACD and signal lines were on an uptrend. This led to one 2,000% more at the Bitcoin price from the weekly crossover point.

Later the fake weekly bullish crossover in September 2018 we have shows that the monthly MACD and signal line were on a downward path and that the monthly MACD was already bearishly crossing. Therefore, the impulse of a higher timeframe signaled that the weekly MACD cross movement may not be valid.

The weekly upward cross for February seems to have exactly the same conditions as the September cross, but with one difference. The monthly MACD histogram lost momentum, as can be seen from the paler pink color compared to the darker pink of the previous cross. In this case resulted in a 400% increase in Bitcoin price.

If we now look at the dynamics of 2020, we can see that The monthly MACD cut and changed direction between December and February, which caused the signal line and the MACD to have a lateral trajectory: literally a premiere for Bitcoin.

But if you’ve read so far and are still tracking where I’m going with it, the monthly signal line is on an upward trend for the first time since October 2015, when Bitcoin was only $ 200 per coin, and if we hit it Bringing all time high $ 20,000 is a monstrous move of 10,000% or 100x.

In this sense, will the next bullish cross in the monthly MACD take place in June? Are we ready to increase the current price by 10,000%? Only time will tell.

Bitcoin is starting to decline

1-hour chart for the BTC / USD pair Source: TradingView

If we limit ourselves to the time frame of one hour, we can see that Bitcoin started to form a pattern of higher minima and lower maxima after the big streak last night.

Usually This signals a possible continuation of the previous trendThe upside potential is $ 9,600. And if we had kept that level during the day, the next week would have looked incredibly bullish.

As this breakout has just happened, a drop to $ 8,400 is expected later this week.

The positions and opinions expressed here are exclusively those of @official and do not necessarily reflect Cointelegraph’s views. Every step of investment and trading involves risks. You have to do your own research when making a decision.

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