Bitcoin (BTC) is “likely” to miss its planned end of the month for November, analyst PlanB admits.
In a Twitter update on November 25th the creator of the end-of-month price forecasts for the “worst-case scenario” ???? he was preparing for the first time to accept defeat.
First “probable” failure of the Bitcoin minimum model
At just under $ 40,000, Bitcoin is currently well below its low end of the month for November.
Now, PlanB admits that the BTC / USD pair is unlikely to hit $ 98,000 in the next five days.
“The November closing of the $ 98,000 lowshoot is likely to be an initial mistake (after August, September and October were pinned down),” he said on Twitter.
Floor model $ 98K Nov. will likely be a first failure (after nailing in August, Sept, Oct). S2F model not affected and actually heading towards $ 100,000. pic.twitter.com/QO3bRUoGo3
to???? PlanB (@ $ 100 trillion) November 25, 2021
When featured on a podcast by Saifedean Ammous, author of The Bitcoin Standard and the Fiat StandardOn November 11th, PlanB declared its previous confidence in the model of the minima, which lies in its mathematical nature.
“If we don’t hit $ 98,000 by the end of November, it would be the first time in Bitcoin’s entire history on this specific indicator.”, called.
The minimum model projected, almost verbatim (or numerous), monthly closing prices of $ 47,000, $ 43,000, and $ 63,000, respectively, for August, September, and October.
Thanks for the 200% annual profit
Despite the break with tradition, the disappointment of the lower-priced model won’t have any impact on PlanB’s groundbreaking line of stock-to-flow models. he pointed out after repeated confusion that the two were related in some way.
Stock-to-flow (S2F) is currently calling for an average BTC / USD price of $ 100,000 in this halving cycle, with the fourth quarter of 2021 being a suitable period to show the level for the first time.
Its sister model, the stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) continues at an average of $ 288,000, although it has also come under fire in recent weeks because of BTC’s underperformance.
Nevertheless, In an interview with Ammus, PlanB said that the gap between the spot price and the price of the S2F model does not yet threaten to weaken.
The model uses standard deviation bands to track progress and this month the BTC / USD pair stayed in acceptable territory.
As Cointelegraph reported, a number of other indicators remain firmly optimistic about the future, with the current price phase seen as a consolidation rather than a prelude to a deeper decline.
The BTC / USD pair started at $ 29,000 in 2021, while the Hodlers are up more than 210% compared to last Thanksgiving.