Philip quickly, Bitcoin analyst and creator of lookintobitcoin.com, He set out four reasons he believes BTC is headed for $ 22,000. Both fundamental and technical factors suggest that the momentum of the cryptocurrency is increasing.
A one-year HODL percentage, declining Bitcoin reserves on exchanges, neutral funding rates, and institutional build-up point to a sustained BTC rally.. Fast wrote::
“Is the 1-year HODL percentage still too high? Yes, is Bitcoin coming from the exchanges? Yes, is the financing still neutral? Yes, do institutions continue to buy? Yes cool. See you at $ 22,000 in a couple of weeks when the price hits 350 dma x 2 the golden ratio multiplier. “
Since the beginning of the fourth quarter on October 1, the price of Bitcoin on Binance has increased from $ 10,773 to $ 16,730.
The HODL percentage shows investor confidence
The Bitcoin space has long referred to BTC owners as “HODLers”. 1-year HODL Wave shows growth in the number of investors who have held BTC for more than a year.
Since the crash in March, the 1-year HODL wave has increased from 59% to over 62%. Now it’s at an all-time highwhich means a clear accumulation trend.
As the number of HODLers increases, there is an appetite to buy and hold Bitcoin for a long time. The current trend could show that investors are expecting a broader long-term rise in Bitcoin.
The financing rates are neutral
Bitcoin funding rates can rise significantly during bull cyclesBecause owners or buyers in a long position overwhelm sellers in a short position.
The bitcoin futures market uses the financing interest mechanism to ensure market equilibrium. If there are more long positions than short positions, the funding rate will be positive. In this case, buyers have to compensate sellers on a short position and vice versa.
The average refinancing rate for Bitcoin futures contracts is 0.01%. In recent months, the funding rate has stayed around 0.01% or sometimes lower.
This shows that There is a good balance between buyers and sellers and the market is not yet saturated.
Bitcoin stocks are falling
As Cointelegraph reported yesterday, Around 145,000 BTC left the exchanges last month.
The monthly redemption of $ 2.3 billion worth of Bitcoin on the exchanges shows investors’ intent to maintain their BTC stake in the long term.
Investors need to deposit BTC on exchanges in order to sell it. So, When the payouts increase, it usually indicates that investors are planning on holding BTC for longer periods of time.
Institutional accumulation is increasing
In the US, grayscale is still the preferred entry point for institutional investors in Bitcoin. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is the closest investment vehicle to an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) as it is publicly traded in the United States.
Loud grayscale The company now owns more than 500,000 BTC, which at a price of $ 16,700 is worth more than $ 8,350 million.
Institutes have continued to accumulate Bitcoin as it has seen a strong recovery since early 2020. The strength of BTC, especially as it consistently outperforms gold, has made the value proposition more attractive to institutions year-round..