In this update, I want to follow up on the previous update of Bitcoin “Bitcoin 2018: Low $5.000 and High $90.000” in which I explained that we could see a bounce up after the drop from 20k to 11k. And that bounce could be an opportunity to decrease long exposure or even add to overweight shorts.
In today’s update, I want to share where we are now and if the patterns keep aligning, what we could/should expect for the next couple of days/weeks/months.
The left side of the chart shows the Silver parabolic pattern, zoomed in on the pattern of nr. 11. After the sell off from nr. 9 to nr. 10, nr. 11 formed a dead cat bounce in the form of an abcde pattern, retracing 2/3 of the original drop.
Now, if we compare this with the current pattern of bitcoin, then it seems fair to conclude that nr. 10, the 1st sell off after the vertical move up (nr. 9), looks finished. Last week, I was under the impression that nr. 11 was already finished, but now that I zoomed in on the silver pattern of nr. 11, I think the current view better matches the comparison between the two.
If correct, this would lead to a target for nr. 11 of $17.000-$18.000 for the second week of January, after which nr.12, the next sell off, could take place. Target for nr.12 is expected to be below $10.000, so this indicates another drop of at least 40% into the end of January.
Total Portfolio Strategy 2018
If you want to read more about my Total Investment Strategy, then please read this update first: 2017 Performance and Total Portfolio.
Or read my latest update on the US Markets: Dow Jones Industrial, Party Like It’s 1987!
This is what I will do over the next couple of weeks/months:
- I will add monthly to a mutual fund (worldwide stocks), as I expectstocks to skyrocket into the year 2030, peak of flight to private assets;
- I will add 2% of my assets to buy put spreads AEX Dec 2018, as a hedge for my equity exposure, medium term trade (12-24 months, 2018-2019);
- I will add 7% of my assets to to my 2018-2019eToro hedge strategy: – Hedge US Stock Market for a 20%-40% crash
- I will contribute small amounts to interesting ICO’s and tokens that pay out a periodic cash flow;
- I decreased my crypto exposure from 20% of total assets to 4% of total assets;
- I will add to my short sovereign bond strategy (rising interest rates) when rates come down a bit into 2018 or if they break key resistance to the upside.
ps. I started a new project, for and by my international students.
We analyze upcoming ICO’s and when we see a project that we like, we contribute. Our latest contribution is LHCrypto, a token that pays out a monthly cash flow, has a working business model and is active in a growthmarket.
We now have 15 contributions, and our goal is to build a portfolio of 100 tokens that generates a periodic cash flow (Portfolio of 100).
Feel free to follow our ideas: CryptoRatingDesk.com