On November 13, a total of $ 525 million in open positions on Bitcoin Options (BTC) will expire. This is similar to last week when The outstanding interest in options of USD 470 million has also expired. This is a bit of an unusual activity as most of the volume goes through monthly and quarterly options.
On November 5th (last Friday) The open interest of the put options was 30% higher than that of the call options. The exchange Deribit has an open interest of $ 431 million for this Friday’s expiration and Bit.com has $ 72 million.
Before reaching any conclusions about whether this number is bullish or bearish, it is important to study it further to measure the potential buying and selling pressures just before it expires.
For example, The holder of a $ 18,000 call option is not going to make much profit by increasing the price of Bitcoin to $ 16,500 with the expiration time less than 32 hours. The market already considers these options worthless. We can say the same for a put option up to $ 14,000.
By excluding call options above $ 16,700 and put options below $ 14,400 Traders can have a more realistic view of current market conditions.
Deribit has 5,915 BTC of call options between $ 14,000 and $ 15,750. Bit.com is 1,050 BTC and OKEx is currently 490 BTC. So, There is an immediate open interest of $ 117 million that supports current levels.
Meanwhile, the put options are between $ 15,250 and $ 16,500 at 2,130 BTC at Deribit, followed by 860 BTC at Bit.com and another 100 BTC at OKEx. As such, the immediate sell-side pressure is $ 48 million in open interest on put options.
The reason for this difference is as follows Most put options have been devalued and are no longer worth anything in the market. This move excludes the 84% open positions on put options of $ 298 million.
Therefore, if only the option prices that come closest to the market level are analyzed, there is a notable $ 69 million imbalance that favors the buyer side. Like last week, there have been some major declining deals likely related to the US election.
Whether the market is strong enough to break the $ 16,000 resistance, These short-term options currently support prices of $ 15,500 and up.
The weekly contracts for OKEx, Bit.com and Deribit expire on November 13th at 8:00 a.m. (UTC).
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