According to a recent survey, around 37% of the cryptocurrency community expects the Bitcoin (BTC) hashrate to be higher a month after halving the block reward than it is now.
Cryptocurrency Wallet Tracking App Blockfolio polled its users on April 27. They asked if they believe Bitcoin’s hash rate will be higher or lower a month after halving.
The community has a positive outlook
The blockfolio question was answered by more than 8,000 users. Among respondents, 37% believed that the hash rate would be higher, 29% that it would be lower, and 17% that it would be the same. The remaining 17% admitted they didn’t know. Philip Salter, mining operations manager at mining company Genesis Mining, told Cointelegraph that the new application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) should help maintain Bitcoin’s hash rate after halving.
Salter explained that you need to know several key data points to understand the impact of halving on the hash rate of Bitcoin. How Bitcoin’s price will evolve, how many miners will cease operations due to reduced profitability, and how much hashrate will be added due to new hardware. He explained:
“There is a new generation of [minería] On the go, which should go online shortly after halving. By default, the hash rate increases. […] The results of the survey show that people are not sure how to answer these questions. But more people think the hash will go up, which shows bullish price sentiment and […] trust that the manufacturers deliver on time. “
An expert’s prediction
Salter estimates that after halving the bitcoin hash rate, it will be about 30% lower than it is now if the price doesn’t go up. On the other hand, if bitcoin prices continue to rise, he believes the hashrate could remain stable after the block reward was reduced. He also noted that “much of the fall should not happen immediately because miners cannot be shut down immediately.” Nevertheless, expect it to recover when the crash occurs:
“In the medium term, the hash should recover fairly quickly [ASIC] That will be Bitmain S9 with an efficiency of around 90 W / TH. The new [ASIC] They have ~ 30 W / TH, so they can deliver three times as much hash with the same power consumption. This gives us a good estimate of how much hash can rise without building new farms. “
Finally, Salter hopes that the health of the Bitcoin network will not be seriously affected. He admitted that Bitcoin mining will be slightly centralized as less optimized operations will stop the activity. Total electricity consumption will also decrease due to the shutdown of some establishments. Still, he believes these changes will be temporary. He says the new hardware will enable homeworkers to start mining Bitcoin again.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) halved earlier this month. Shortly after halving, the network saw a 60% decrease in the hash rate from 4.36 EH / s to 1.6 EH / s in less than a day. Shortly after, a Cointelegraph analysis explained that halving Bitcoin Cash reduced the profitability of the mining network and caused miners to flee to competing blockchains.
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