Bitcoin (BTC) is celebrating another week with a surge to $ 12,000 and its largest weekly close since hitting $ 20,000Will this award come back?
Cointelegraph takes a look at five things that will affect BTC price action over the next five days.
A weekly record close of two and a half years
The fact that Bitcoin hit $ 12,000 again early Monday was more than a relief for traders.;; With this, BTC / USD achieved the highest closing price in weekly periods since January 2018.
This means that since then, not a week of price action has ended on such a high level.including the heyday of the bull market last year.
After the analysts were satisfied for several short-term months, Bitcoin continued this for the longer term, a crucial step in consolidating the upward trend.
Now, Investors looking for confirmation that the bull market will continue may have received itCompared to daily and hourly events, a multi-year maximum weekly conclusion is important.
BTC / USD is up 2.4% on the daywith a weekly income of 7% and a monthly return of more than 30%.
In terms of prices, $ 12,000 is the highest Bitcoin value since June 2019Three months after the bull market raised cryptocurrency from $ 4,000 to $ 13,800 in the second quarter, a level this cycle has not yet reached.
BTC / USD 7 day price chart. Source: Coin360
The triumph was driven by the instability of the Fiat
Bitcoin’s price spike comes a week after the President of the United States. Donald Trump added the ban on the Chinese social media platform TikTok to the existing geopolitical tensions.
The resulting escalation in relations with Beijing is adding to the ongoing weakness of the US dollar and ongoing concerns about the coronavirus., a perfect storm for a flight to safe havens.
At the same time, Trump signed a series of executive orders on the coronavirus incentiveThis is now having a strange impact on markets that are already heavily interfered with by the Federal Reserve.
This time around, however, the measures will have a less direct impact on the average American.. For critics, for example, a delay in income tax is not enough.
“”This fake tax cut would also come as a big shock to workers who thought they would get a tax cut if only it was a delay.“Bloomberg quoted Democratic Senator Ron Wyden in a statement.
“These workers would be affected by much higher payments in the future.”
It is this delay in the inevitable financial cost of personal wealth that is at the heart of the Probitcoin argument.Economic behavior with a high preference ultimately costs much more in the long term than the direct benefit for the target group.
Bitcoin Correlation: Stocks or Gold?
It is currently less clear where Bitcoin could go in the short term when historical performance versus other macro-assets is taken into account.
The period since Marchwhere there was a decrease in cross assets, was characterized first by a correlation with the stock markets and then with safe havens and specifically with gold.
Gold hit an all-time high in US dollars weeks before Bitcoin’s sharp riseand its rise has continued until now.
A slight correction pushed XAU / USD down from highs near USD 2,075 to USD 2,030.;; If the trend continues, Bitcoin could cool its uptrend as well.
However, as Cointelegraph reported, In-depth action by the Federal Reserve should push the precious metal further into a “wildly bullish” policy shift to push inflation well above its current rate of 0.6%.
The stocks also appeared to be less stable– Analysts warned of the impact on developing markets of the Turkish currency crisis, and China’s sanction on US officials against Hong Kong increased the pressure.
Futures gaps open lower for BTC / USD
Another volatile weekend has opened a classic feature for short-term Bitcoin price prediction., a “void” in the CME Bitcoin futures markets.
The weekend’s volatility means futures ended at $ 11,680 on Friday and started again at $ 11,750. The resulting gap provides an important price target;; In the past, Bitcoin filled such “gaps” in days or even hours.
One such setup took place last week; The volatility supported the trend after weeks of flat-rate prices that completely eliminated gaps in the market.
Another smaller gap of $ 9,700 has continued since July.
CME’s Bitcoin futures chart shows the recent gaps. Source: TradingView
Everything on time
For the PlanB analyst, Inventor of the bitcoin stock flow forecasting model, The bullish action of the past few weeks is exactly what was expected.
In early August, PlanB stated that BTC / USD was filling the stock-to-flow chart according to historical precedents.Since the halving in May, the points have confirmed that current behavior is within norms.
Bitcoin stock price chart as of August 10th Source: Digitalik
On the subject of big players who are now adopting a bullish stance, added last week what “When Bitcoin was $ 4,000 in 2019, many large accounts were pessimistic; they were predicting a price of $ 1,000.”.
There were signs of this behind the scenes, however If $ 6,000 showed up, sentiment would change in favor of the cops.
“That happened seriously, we raised the price by $ 6,000. Now Many were pessimistic even at $ 9,000 … $ 13,500 will be interesting“wrote PlanB.