Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week over $ 10,000 And if you mock investors with the most profits, will it last at this level or is a correction already guaranteed?
Cointelegraph takes a look at the beginning of the week and what it could reserve for the price of Bitcoin. five factors that could bring BTC / USD to the moon or back to four digits.
Gold vs. Bitcoin: “Strong profits are inevitable”
As stock futures rose higher on Monday, the macro focus focused more on geopolitical tensions. The United States and China continued to raise enemy spirits, while coronavirus issues also remained in the headlines..
Both problems have had a remarkable impact on the demand for safe havens.and especially in gold. As Cointelegraph reported, gold and silver appreciated significantly last week Record values for gold and silver bars were recorded at the weekend.
In line with the previous sentiment indicators There is great confidence that Bitcoin will follow the example of the precious metal.
Talking to Bloomberg, An analyst predicted that the rise in the price of gold was far from over.
“”Strong profits are inevitable when we enter a time that is very similar to the post-GFC environmentGold prices rose to a record high as a lot of Federal Reserve money was fed into the financial system, “said Gavin Wendt, senior resource analyst at MineLife Pty in Australia.
At the same time, Citigroup put the XAU / USD’s chances of winning at over $ 2,000 in late 2020 at 30%..
“”The US dollar has just hit a record low. Now it takes more than $ 1,920 to buy an #oro ounce, ” summarized Peter Schiff, the gold beetle.
“But this record will not last long as the dollar’s decline is only just beginning. It is about to plunge into new depths and lower American living standards.”
Bitcoin chart versus 3-month gold. Source: Skew
Incoming flow on stock exchanges is skyrocketing
The rise in Bitcoin to $ 10,300 is not surprising. The weeks of price compression were expected to break out or decline. The analysts disagreed in which direction the market would go.
However, the speed of the weekend outbreak was worrying for some. Specially, The behavior of the traders indicates that the mood is increasingly turning towards short-term profit taking.
“”The BTC price rose too quickly. Other whales seem to think the same thing, “summarized Ki Young Ju, founder of the chain analysis resource. CryptoQuant.
Ki has uploaded a chart showing stock market inflows over the past three days resulted in a remarkable increase in the number of coins that end up in the wallets of the exchanges.
At the beginning of the climbThe lack of long-term seller sales gave the impression that this time the $ 10,000 would not go away on a sale like the previous two peaks.
CryptoQuant data now suggest this The trend is too high for many.
3-day graph of the inflow on Bitcoin exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant
A USD 300 futures gap will open
A well-known force that is returning to Bitcoin this week has to do with derivatives markets, a gap in the CME Group’s bitcoin futures market.
Underlining the contrast for compression, The difference between the end of Friday’s trading session and the start of Monday is several hundred dollars, with around USD 9,650 and USD 9,900 as a broker.
As Cointelegraph often reports, BTC / USD has a habit of “filling” the gaps in futures, often within days or even hours after they appear.
So, The focus was on a possible drop from $ 10,250 at press time to $ 9,600 to close the gap. Orders stacked below the broker’s low around the checkpoint (POC) at $ 9,575 on Monday, prompting Michaël van de Poppe, analyst at Cointelegraph Markets, to draw different conclusions about Bitcoin and the rest of the market.
“To be honest, I think Ethereum is starting a new cycle and Bitcoin is still within its reach“he said in private comments.
“The only suspicion I have is whether we will drop to $ 9,400 and continue the spread for a month.”
Ether exceeded expectations on the weekend with its own earnings, fixed resistance at $ 285 and further to $ 330.
Chart of CME Bitcoin futures for a week. Source: TradingView
The eyes are on the stimulus from the Federal Reserve and the United States
Back to the macroUS stimulus plans to pump more dollars into the economy should be announced on Monday..
At the same time, The markets listened to new Federal Reserve guidelinesanalysts advise keeping interest rates at 0.25%.
Any impact of this decision on stocks could help develop Bitcoin, despite the fact that the weekend was an exception to the correlation that BTC’s price showed with the stocks.
Bitcoin chart against the 3-month SP 500. Source: Skew
“The reason why COVID19 is fatal to the US economy is as follows We have borrowed so much money in the past to artificially boost GDP and the stock market. “, continuously Ship and adds:
So we’re broke to borrow more to fight Covid now and we can only print. The dollar will fall and bring the economy with it. “
As always, Schiff was not very optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospectsand highlights gold as the main escape when the dollar falls.
The mood indicators for miners remain calm
In contrast to spot dealers Bitcoin miners appeared to be calm during the recent volatility. According to CryptoQuant, outflows from mining assemblies did not increase due to price gains.
The previous events caused much more turmoil, especially the halving in May, which reduced miners’ rewards by 50% overnight.
Graph of the outflow of Bitcoin mines in one year. Source: CryptoQuant
At the same time, The basics of the network are preserved, with a hash rate and difficulty at or around historical highs.
An automatic difficulty adjustment on Tuesday will reduce the metric by around 2.7% according to current estimates.with the stable hash rate.
Difficulty is an inaccurate but useful indicator of the mood of minersWhile the hash rate gives a rough indication of how much computing power the Bitcoin blockchain is securing.