Bitcoin (BTC) starts another week in a bullish mood as obstacles to shape the price trend.
Cointelegraph presents five factors that determine where BTC / USD can go in the next few days and what traders should look out for.
All eyes on the Fed and the US inflation.
Stocks hit records last week when the SP 500 hit an all-time high. Despite a smaller overall impact on Bitcoin The movements in the macro markets are still more than capable of overwhelming the cryptocurrency.
The bullish momentum continued on Monday with higher stock futuresbut with a sense of fear that builds on the Fed’s upcoming speech.
Markets waited for news of inflation that was rumored to hit 4%..
This would be a perfect storm to raise the safe havensAccording to analysts, in an environment that has already brought the US dollar index to its two-year lows and flooded the market with excess liquidity due to quantitative easing.
The news will come from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during his annual economic policy symposium on Thursday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
“There is no doubt that the Jackson Hole Symposium this week will seek more clarity.”Ben Emons of macro analysis firm Medley Global Advisors told Bloomberg on Monday.
US futures were higher; Asia, for its part, took on an optimistic tone thanks to Washington’s pledges not to block the Chinese social network WeChatAs a result, owner Tencent’s shares rose more than 4%.
Analyst aims to buy $ 9,600 in the event of a break-in
In a nutshell, Bitcoin welcomed analysts earlier this week. For the analyst at Cointelegraph Markets, Michaël van de Poppe, A decline was now less likely after BTC / USD avoided repeating below $ 11,500 levels on Sunday evening.
In a video on Sunday’s transaction analysis, van de Poppe added: In the event of a slump, however, the observed purchase level would be below USD 10,000.
“The actual level I look for in the event of a break-in is between $ 9,600 and $ 9,900.”summarized.
Short term analysis of BTC / USD. Source: Michaël van de Poppe / Twitter
Concerns about a drop below five numbers had become less common among commentators;; Van de Poppe largely dismissed rumors of a $ 8,000 withdrawal.
The last time Bitcoin traded below $ 10,000 was in late July.
Bitcoin difficulty hits a new record
Difficulty has been adjusted with a 3% increase to meet new all-time highsbut the hash rate trend was lower.
According to the data from the monitoring resource BTC.com, The difficulty increased by 3.6% on Monday to 18.17 billion.
The new record suggests so The participation of miners in the network is stronger than everand the competition is reflected in how tedious it is to solve the equations on the blockchain.
The difficulty adjusts automatically and is an essential feature of Bitcoin as a self-regulating hard money. The problem remains fixed regardless of high or low difficulty levels.
Meanwhile, The hash rate has decreased by around 8% in the past seven daysAccording to estimates, the value is currently 119 exahashes per second (EH / s).
Graph of the average bitcoin hash rate for six months. Source: Blockchain
Given the inaccuracy of hash rate measurements Number that, once the difficulty is adjusted, is likely to normalize and instead continue a broad upward trendAs was the case shortly after the halving in May, miners’ incomes were cut by 50% overnight.
$ 730 million options expire
Watch out for crypto derivatives again this weekas the month comes to an end and the liquidations approach.
62,000 BTC ($ 730 million) in Bitcoin options will expire on August 28thwhich reminds of the action at the end of June.
Open Interest Expiration Dates for Bitcoin Options. Source: Skew
Traditionally, Liquidation points put the price of BTC under pressurebut as Cointelegraph reported, The nearly $ 1 billion leak in June proved not to be a market event.
However, With each passing week the futures reach a wider audienceas evidenced by the record inflow from Grayscale in August.
At the same time the chain analysis resource Aslant reported Record short positions for Bitcoin futures of the CME Group, which were described as “very likely” due to the profitability of so-called “cash and carry” transactions.
These are carried out between the futures price and the spot price of Bitcoin as a form of arbitrage.
Queen “extreme greed”
The mood among Bitcoin investors is “extremely greedy”. and he’s getting greedy.
This was the conclusion reached by the sentiment indicator of the Fear and Greed Index.which remained firmly bearish on Monday in the general mood of the market.
As Cointelegraph reported last week, The index nearly hit the greed record before falling slightly, but rose to its 100/100 high over the weekend.
The index uses a basket of factors to measure whether the market is oversold or whether it is due to a correction.
Fear and Greed Index as of August 24th. Source: Alternative.me
In terms of volatility, the use of Bollinger Bands on BTC / USD also indicates this New price action will take place but it remains uncertain whether it will go up or down.
Last week, Creator John Bollinger himself described Bitcoin’s current rally as a “perfect picture”..