The Bitcoin (BTC) price has been trading sideways for several weeks and has now been over a month since halving. This is very reminiscent of early 2017, when Bitcoin hit $ 1,180 for the second time, triggering a catastrophic sell-off that resulted in the world’s largest cryptocurrency falling nearly 40% in a single day.
It was all over, Bitcoin was pronounced dead, and the next thing we saw was the first sign that we were in a bull market.
Daily performance of the cryptocurrency market. Source: Coin360.com
First sign: the trap
1-day BTC / USD pair chart: TradingView (2017)
1-day BTC / USD pair chart: TradingView (today)
After studying the repeating pattern charts, you can see that the pattern that developed after the 40% decline from $ 1,180 in January 2017 is almost identical to the 57% decline on March 12, also known as the black Thursday.
In both cases, the price recovered to the level before the fall and shortly after an M pattern, which generally indicates a declining double cap.
However, what’s different about the M pattern in 2017 is that the end of the M was actually the beginning of a W. Not quite two stories, but next came an increase in value of 2000%. Bitcoin.
We see the same pattern in 2020. The only question is, where is the bottom of the W? Is the floor inside? Or are we waiting for another small setback?
Second sign: the range
1 hour BTC / USD pair chart: TradingView
On June 11, there was a collapse of the ascending channel that had formed since Black Thursday’s fall. A setback was inevitable after such a big recovery.
10 days later, a new descending channel opens that has perfect Fibonacci levels.
The top of the channel, which has a resistance at around $ 9,600, is perfectly at 618, and the center of the channel shows a support level at 236 Fib at $ 9,168.
However, While this doesn’t seem like a bull market in terms of face value, the interesting thing is the relevance of the 50% Fibonacci, which is around $ 9,470, and the support from channeling around $ 8,635 as these levels When you look at the heat map of the order book, it becomes an outstanding result.
Third character: the order book
BTC / USD heat map diagram. Source: Tensorcharts.com
If you look at the Binance order book on tensor charts, you see that there are significant customer orders, as indicated by the yellow line around 50% Fibonacci at $ 9,450, and strangely enough, many orders around $ 8,800 and another batch at the bottom of the descending Channel at $ 8,696.
This tells us two things: resistance is $ 9,450 and support is $ 8,700. Given the current page breakdown and the right buyers and sellers, it doesn’t take long for the whales to make fun of the backlog to force the market in their favor.
Therefore, it seems almost natural to place large customer orders for $ 9,450 to get more sats for $ 8,700. However, if you spend enough time looking at the charts and the order book, you will find that this way, whales can easily accumulate in leveraging exchanges.
As the shorts build up and aim for $ 8,700, spoofers can take a long, large position, remove their $ 9,450 sales wall, and pick up all those remaining stock – something that is particularly easy on weekends. when the volume on the spot exchanges is thinner.
While this is not a sign of a bull market, it is a sign of accumulation and what follows is a bull market.
Fourth sign: Altcoins season
CryptoCap total monthly chart. Source: TradingView
If you missed it The long-awaited “altcoins season” is apparently just around the corner. A look at the cryptocurrency market cap chart shows that the moving average convergence / divergence (MACD) indicator has become bullish after a 22-month downtrend.
The first green candle in the histogram in combination with the MACD’s bullish cross is a clear sign that the global cryptocurrency market has picked up momentum again. Since then, some of the top 100 currencies have seen massive gains, such as ZIL, which recently rose 300%.
History tells us that when Altcoins rebound, smart money is resold in Bitcoin: Rinse and repeat this process several times and the super cycle occurs. But what drives this madness? Well, that would be thanks to the space of the crypto-influencers, and that brings us to the fifth sign.
Fifth sign: the IQ of crypto-influencers is at the lowest point
Some of you may or may not know this, but I personally entered the cryptocurrency scene on YouTube in 2016, getting almost 50,000 subscribers to talk about Bitcoin and Altcoins.
As my first halving cycle, I was pretty naive and personally believed that many altcoins would surpass Bitcoin. While this applies to a handful of projects, most crypto-influencers have no idea of it, and I was no exception.
Either you’re lucky with a choice, or you have a number of followers large enough to increase a small capitalization by 400% by talking about it for a few minutes so that you see yourself as a guru of cryptocurrency investment.
The sheer number of cryptocurrency videos and crypto tweets I’ve seen lately by people trying to do so, and the rise or even return of so-called “crypto experts” is simply amazing.
All of this, along with the fact that my email inbox is full of offers to promote different currencies and ICOs, reminds me again of the start of the bull market in 2017, the upward trend that has changed Bitcoin’s public perception forever.
Fortunately, I won’t be attending the clown circus this time. However, it has to be admitted that it helps people get into the crypto space, and it can be argued that it can help fuel up Altcoins for the Bitcoin super cycle.
What does the next week have to offer us with all of these signs from a bullish perspective?
The first stage of resistance will be to overcome this $ 9,450 selling wall. From here, it has to close over $ 9,600 (as explained in a recent analysis here) to invalidate the downstream channel, setting Bitcoin on the verge of attacking the dreaded multi-year resistance level of $ 10,500. This is the final level that must be exceeded to enter a real bull market.
On the other hand, $ 9,150 is the first level of support, followed by the $ 8,700 channel floor as the last level for buyers.. The loss of $ 8,700 could put Bitcoin on a massive death spiral, which I personally see as an illusion of troublesome bears who didn’t buy the fall at $ 4,000 in March.
The opinions and views expressed here are exclusively those of @official and do not necessarily reflect Cointelegraph’s views. Every investment and trade movement involves risks. You have to do your own research when making a decision.