Saxo Bank released its forecast of events that would affect the global economy in 2021.
4 min read
When we talk about finances “Black swans” are rare and unexpected events that affect global activity. For example the coronavirus pandemic, which caused a global economic crisis in 2020. Like every year Saxo Bank published his predictions on 10 events that could affect global markets in 2021
According to the Danish investment bank, which specializes in online trading and investing, technology will be the number one cause of damage to the world’s accounts.
Amazon “buys” Cyprus
Amazon plans to move its headquarters from the European Union to Cyprus. The company’s tax revenue will help the country cut its debt ratio by nearly 100%. The EU is reacting and forcing Cyprus and other countries to harmonize tax rules. The United States is also participating in the fight against these monopolies.
Germany saves France
National debt in France will be 120% of GDP in 2021. Investors are becoming more pessimistic, which will lead to a sell-off of French megabanks. Then France will ask Germany for help so that the European Central Bank authorizes it to print more money and allow a massive rescue of the system.
ONE Blockchain kill fake news
Disinformation is increasing, and with it the lack of credibility in the media, which is causing the industry to respond. A huge network of Blockchain that allow the diffusion of news in an immutable manner with verification of the validity of the content and the source.
Changes in Chinese cash flow
Electronic payment in digital currency would be an electronic version of the yuan (CNY). People’s Bank of China is looking for a society that uses less cash. The Blockchain eliminates the risk of capital flight or illegality.
The design of the MIT Sparc fusion reactor has been augmented with artificial intelligence, which was validated as the path to fusion performance in 2020. This led to the biggest paradigm shift in energy technology since nuclear power. Wind Power ETF FAN down 50%.
After an exceptional year, the SaxoStrats are back with their 10 outrageous predictions for 2021.
Join us for an outrageous one #webinar tomorrow, December 10th at 11 a.m. https://t.co/uWmni2byvI
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– Saxo Bank (@saxobank) December 9, 2020
Universal basic income
City offices are 100% overloaded. Commercial office property values are falling. With the creation of a universal basic income, workers and skilled workers are leaving the big cities. Better work-life balance.
Citizen Technology Fund
There will be new strategies to reduce inequality. The Citizen Technology Fund is set up, which transfers part of the ownership of capital assets to everyone. Another part goes to vulnerable population groups with productivity gains from the digital age.
The Covid-19 vaccine is killing companies
The post-vaccine recovery is overheating the economy. Inflation is rising and unemployment is falling so quickly that the Fed is raising long-term government bond yields. Business failures are increasing. Physical retail businesses are the first to go.
Solar panels and silver
With a Covid-19 vaccine, excessive liquidity and the policy of excessive ease ensure a strong supply of all hard assets. The price of silver will rise at an accelerated rate and the crisis in its supply will thwart investment in solar energy.
Effects of New Technologies
Growth rates are overestimated in emerging economies, but key technologies can increase private sector productivity above what has been seen in developed economies in recent decades. For regions like Latin America this would be a surprise.
With information from Saxo Bank.